Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#517 Wellston (2-3) 87.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#72 of 106 in Division V
#17 of 26 in Region 19
Eitel team page
Region 19 projections
Region 19 playoff probabilities
Region 19 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 14-54 H #258 Jackson (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 21 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 48-14 H #649 Piketon (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-21 H #396 Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23), pick: W by 8 (66%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-35 A #277 West Portsmouth Portsmouth West (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 49-7 H #619 Albany Alexander (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 10 (71%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #635 Bidwell River Valley (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 8 (69%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #473 Nelsonville-York (1-4 D6 R23), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #358 The Plains Athens (4-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #464 Pomeroy Meigs (2-3 D4 R15), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #533 McArthur Vinton County (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 1 (53%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#61 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
6.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R19 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-3%, 3W-17%, 4W-37%, 5W-31%, 6W-11%

Playoff chance
3% now (need 7-3), 1% home
3% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 6.25 (3.95-11.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 8.35 (6.15-13.25) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.00 (8.45-14.85) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 14.00 (12.45-16.65) 85% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.4% WWWLW 11.70 pts, 13% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Johnstown-Monroe 39%

Worst realistic scenario
2.7% LLLLL 3.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WLLLW 5.75 pts, out
11% WWLLW 7.70 pts, out
9.2% WLLLL 3.95 pts, out
7.3% WWLLL 5.95 pts, out
7.0% WLLWW 8.10 pts, out
5.2% WWLWW 10.00 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
(41% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Albany Alexander (2-3 D5 R19) over Vincent Warren (0-5 D3 R11)
Week 9: Swanton (2-3 D5 R18) over Delta (2-3 D6 R22)
Week 8: Weir WV (4-1 D4) over Richmond Edison (3-2 D5 R19)
Week 9: Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1 D4 R15) over Ironton (3-2 D5 R19)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
32% Johnstown-Monroe (4-1)
26% Bellaire (5-0)
20% Martins Ferry (4-1)
8% Ironton (3-2)
3% Amanda-Clearcreek (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.5 (1-3, #535, D5 #78) 2% , proj. out
W3: 86.0 (1-2, #532, D5 #76) 1% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 94.4 (1-1, #439, D5 #62) 25% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W1: 89.8 (0-1, #495, D5 #73) 12% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 92.5 (0-0, #501, D5 #74) 18% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 94.0 (5-5)