Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#378 Batavia (6-3) 99.1

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#57 of 107 in Division IV
#15 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 14-6 A #595 Williamsburg (3-6 D6 R24), pick: W by 12 (71%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 41-13 H #698 Cincinnati Gamble Montessori (3-6 D7 R28), pick: W by 27 (91%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 26-7 H #569 Batavia Clermont Northeastern (6-3 D5 R20), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 42-12 A #579 Bethel-Tate (3-6 D5 R20), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-8 H #651 Fayetteville (5-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 0-49 A #51 Clarksville Clinton-Massie (8-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 31 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 7-35 A #265 New Richmond (6-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 16 (83%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 64-49 A #402 Wilmington (4-5 D3 R11), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 20-21 H #257 Goshen (6-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #328 Mount Orab Western Brown (3-6 D2 R8), pick: L by 3 (57%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#91 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
13.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-57%, 7W-43%

Playoff chance
39% now (need 7-3)
90% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 13.55 (13.50-14.65) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 15.70 (15.65-16.80) 90% in, 0% home, proj. #8 (#7-out)

Playoff scenarios
43% W 15.70 pts, 90% in (#8, range #7-out) Wyoming 65%
57% L 13.55 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out) Wyoming 90%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Cincinnati Taft (7-1 D4 R16) over Cincinnati Aiken (6-3 D4 R16)
Week 10: Cincinnati Gamble Montessori (3-6 D7 R28) over Cincinnati Hughes (3-6 D3 R12)
Week 10: Gahanna Columbus Academy (5-4 D5 R19) over Columbus Grandview Heights (7-2 D6 R23)
Week 10: Plain City Jonathan Alder (6-3 D4 R16) over Springfield Shawnee (5-4 D4 R16)
Week 10: West Carrollton (1-8 D3 R12) over Riverside Stebbins (0-9 D2 R8)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
65% Cincinnati Wyoming (9-0)
31% Clarksville Clinton-Massie (8-1)
4% Cincinnati Indian Hill (8-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 99.1 (6-3, #378, D4 #57) 39% (need 7-3), proj. out
W8: 98.0 (6-2, #400, D4 #60) 62% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. #7
W7: 95.0 (5-2, #436, D4 #68) 29% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W6: 96.6 (5-1, #415, D4 #63) 37% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W5: 97.2 (5-0, #408, D4 #60) 41% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W4: 95.8 (4-0, #423, D4 #64) 39% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W3: 91.3 (3-0, #480, D4 #78) 13% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 86.4 (2-0, #534, D4 #89) 3% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 87.3 (1-0, #530, D4 #90) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 89.9 (0-0, #529, D4 #89) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 90.3 (4-6)