Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#413 Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan (2-3) 96.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#61 of 106 in Division IV
#13 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 12-27 H #294 New Bremen (3-2 D7 R28), pick: W by 9 (66%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 30-29 A #400 West Liberty-Salem (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 15 (78%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 50-0 H #640 McGuffey Upper Scioto Valley (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 20 (86%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 12-28 H #240 Plain City Jonathan Alder (3-2 D4 R16), pick: L by 11 (73%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-14 A #207 Bellefontaine (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 18 (84%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #587 Lewistown Indian Lake (0-5 D5 R18), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #424 Springfield Northwestern (3-2 D4 R16), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #295 New Carlisle Tecumseh (3-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 10 (73%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #551 St Paris Graham Local (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #431 Urbana (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 1 (50%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#41 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
10.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-6%, 4W-25%, 5W-39%, 6W-25%, 7W-5%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.00 (7.55-15.00) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.35 (10.30-16.15) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 15.10 (12.90-17.60) 13% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
5.1% WWWWW 15.10 pts, 13% in (out, range #6-out) Wyoming 44%

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% WLLLL 5.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WWLWL 9.95 pts, out
13% WWLWW 12.00 pts, out
10% WLLWL 6.90 pts, out
10% WLLWW 9.20 pts, out
5.4% WWWWL 12.88 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
4.1% WLWWW 12.20 pts, out
(35% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
41% Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0)
40% Clarksville Clinton-Massie (4-1)
8% Cincinnati Taft (4-1)
8% Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1)
2% Waverly (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.2 (2-2, #418, D4 #62) 3% , proj. out
W3: 95.1 (2-1, #430, D4 #66) 7% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 95.7 (1-1, #421, D4 #61) 12% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 88.4 (0-1, #515, D4 #83) 1% , proj. out
W0: 98.5 (0-0, #415, D4 #65) 9% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 98.7 (5-5)