Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#99 Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0) 122.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#9 of 106 in Division IV
#2 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-14 H #296 Gahanna Columbus Academy (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 15 (77%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 14-12 A #208 Cincinnati Taft (4-1 D4 R16), pick: W by 10 (68%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 33-10 H #341 Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy (2-2 D5 R20), pick: W by 13 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 55-0 A #480 Cleves Taylor (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 62-0 H #656 Cincinnati Finneytown (2-3 D5 R20), pick: W by 41 (99%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #433 Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #329 Cincinnati Madeira (3-2 D5 R20), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #440 Reading (1-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #394 Cincinnati Mariemont (4-1 D5 R20), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #194 Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1 D4 R16), pick: W by 9 (70%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#64 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 9-1
26.65 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected #2 seed in R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-1%, 8W-10%, 9W-40%, 10W-49%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 96% home
99% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 20.06 (17.64-23.35) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #5 (#3-out)
8W: 23.19 (19.52-26.76) 100% in, 77% home, proj. #4 (#1-#7)
9W: 26.65 (23.33-30.22) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)
10W: 30.42 (27.36-32.87) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#2)

Best realistic scenario
49% WWWWW 30.42 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) London 13%

Worst realistic scenario
3.8% WLWWL 22.99 pts, 100% in, 72% home (#4, range #1-#7) Waverly 24%

Most likely other scenarios
23% WWWWL 26.34 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) London 16%
8.8% WLWWW 27.01 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) London 13%
3.7% LWWWW 26.85 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) London 14%
3.1% WWWLW 27.06 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) London 12%
2.3% WWLWW 28.38 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) London 14%
(7% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Wheelersburg (4-1 D5 R20) over Waverly (5-0 D4 R16)
Week 6: Cincinnati Mariemont (4-1 D5 R20) over Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1 D4 R16)
Week 6: Gahanna Columbus Academy (3-2 D5 R19) over London (5-0 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% London (5-0)
11% Springfield Shawnee (4-1)
11% Batavia (5-0)
10% Germantown Valley View (3-2)
9% Washington Court House Washington (4-1)

Championship probabilities
23% Region 16 champ
3.9% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 123.2 (4-0, #93, D4 #8) 99% (need 8-2), 99% home, proj. #1
W3: 123.2 (3-0, #89, D4 #7) 99% (need 7-3), 98% home, proj. #1
W2: 121.5 (2-0, #101, D4 #8) 99% (need 7-3), 88% home, proj. #1
W1: 121.8 (1-0, #91, D4 #7) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 70% home, proj. #3
W0: 121.4 (0-0, #102, D4 #7) 94% (bubble if 6-4), 74% home, proj. #2
Last year 127.2 (12-1)