Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#44 Clarksville Clinton-Massie (4-1) 131.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#2 of 106 in Division IV
#1 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 77-7 A #686 Sabina East Clinton (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 36 (96%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 28-31 A #34 Coldwater (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-18 A #108 Franklin Bishop Fenwick (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 54-0 H #474 Washington Court House Miami Trace (2-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 34-31 H #43 Columbus Bishop Hartley (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #417 Batavia (5-0 D4 R16), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #343 Mount Orab Western Brown (2-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #312 Goshen (3-2 D3 R11), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #261 New Richmond (4-1 D3 R11), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #342 Wilmington (3-2 D3 R11), pick: W by 27 (94%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Best team performances

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#14 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
27.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #1 seed in R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-2%, 8W-21%, 9W-77%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 98% home
100% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 21.30 (18.15-24.30) 99% in, 44% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
8W: 24.40 (20.95-28.30) 100% in, 93% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)
9W: 27.90 (24.70-31.15) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
77% WWWWW 27.90 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) London 14%

Worst realistic scenario
0.4% WWLLW 20.60 pts, 100% in, 36% home (#5, range #2-#8) Waverly 28%

Most likely other scenarios
8.2% WWWLW 23.80 pts, 100% in, 89% home (#3, range #1-#7) Waverly 16%
4.4% WLWWW 25.25 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#2, range #1-#6) London 19%
4.0% WWLWW 24.52 pts, 100% in, 95% home (#3, range #1-#7) London 15%
3.0% WWWWL 24.85 pts, 100% in, 97% home (#3, range #1-#6) London 16%
1.4% LWWWW 24.40 pts, 100% in, 93% home (#3, range #1-#5) Waverly 15%
0.4% WLWLW 21.40 pts, 100% in, 49% home (#5, range #2-#8) Indian Hill 27%

Teams to root for
Week 7: Wheelersburg (4-1 D5 R20) over Waverly (5-0 D4 R16)
Week 6: Mergenthaler MD (3-0 D1) over Cincinnati Taft (4-1 D4 R16)
Week 10: Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1 D4 R16) over Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0 D4 R16)
Week 8: Columbus Bishop Hartley (3-2 D3 R11) over Columbus St Francis DeSales (3-2 D3 R11)
Week 7: Franklin Bishop Fenwick (3-2 D3 R12) over Dayton Chaminade Julienne (5-0 D3 R12)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% London (5-0)
11% Springfield Shawnee (4-1)
10% Germantown Valley View (3-2)
10% Batavia (5-0)
9% Plain City Jonathan Alder (3-2)

Championship probabilities
58% Region 16 champ
21% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 128.9 (3-1, #52, D4 #2) 99% (need 6-4), 85% home, proj. #2
W3: 127.4 (2-1, #60, D4 #4) 98% (bubble if 6-4), 77% home, proj. #2
W2: 124.4 (1-1, #76, D4 #4) 85% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home, proj. #5
W1: 126.3 (1-0, #65, D4 #3) 96% (need 6-4), 72% home, proj. #1
W0: 128.3 (0-0, #61, D4 #3) 94% (need 6-4), 71% home, proj. #1
Last year 134.0 (13-2)