Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#541 Dayton Oakwood (2-7) 85.1

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#89 of 107 in Division IV
#21 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 24-35 H #433 Cincinnati Mariemont (5-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-14 A #401 West Milton Milton-Union (5-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 35-14 H #648 Carlisle (0-9 D5 R20), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-31 H #240 Germantown Valley View (5-4 D4 R16), pick: L by 18 (83%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 40-12 H #589 Eaton (0-9 D4 R16), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Sep 27 (W6) L 14-48 A #327 Brookville (6-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 24-39 A #529 Dayton Northridge (4-5 D4 R16), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 28-52 H #435 Monroe (2-7 D3 R12), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 12-61 A #119 Bellbrook (9-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 32 (98%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #192 Franklin (5-4 D3 R12), pick: L by 27 (96%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#81 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
1.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-97%, 3W-3%

Playoff scenarios
3.3% W 4.35 pts, out
97% L 1.35 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 85.1 (2-7, #541, D4 #89) out
W8: 85.5 (2-6, #541, D4 #87) out
W7: 87.5 (2-5, #514, D4 #86) out
W6: 92.5 (2-4, #467, D4 #74) out
W5: 94.0 (2-3, #446, D4 #70) 1% , proj. out
W4: 92.8 (1-3, #463, D4 #73) 1% , proj. out
W3: 95.8 (1-2, #417, D4 #64) 1% , proj. out
W2: 93.9 (0-2, #445, D4 #69) 1% , proj. out
W1: 99.9 (0-1, #368, D4 #50) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 108.1 (0-0, #271, D4 #32) 28% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 111.0 (5-5)