Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#108 Franklin Bishop Fenwick (3-2) 121.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#18 of 107 in Division III
#5 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-27 H #138 Anna (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 30-16 A #336 Dayton Belmont (1-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 14 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 18-21 H #44 Clarksville Clinton-Massie (4-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 21-9 H #195 Hamilton Badin (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 20-45 A #47 Kettering Archbishop Alter (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #437 Cincinnati Archbishop McNicholas (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #72 Dayton Chaminade Julienne (5-0 D3 R12), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #361 Cincinnati Purcell Marian (4-1 D5 R20), pick: W by 26 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #269 St Bernard Roger Bacon (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #272 Dayton Carroll (4-1 D3 R12), pick: W by 14 (79%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#10 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
20.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-6%, 6W-25%, 7W-45%, 8W-22%

Playoff chance
93% now (bubble if 5-5), 44% home
94% with a win in next game, and 86% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 14.25 (11.55-18.70) 34% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 17.25 (14.00-22.80) 91% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
7W: 20.35 (17.55-26.10) 99% in, 45% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
8W: 24.75 (22.15-27.50) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)

Best realistic scenario
22% WWWWW 24.75 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#6) Butler 16%

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% WLWLL 13.80 pts, 18% in (out, range #6-out) Chaminade Julienne 55%

Most likely other scenarios
29% WLWWW 19.95 pts, 99% in, 30% home (#5, range #2-out) Trotwood-Madison 24%
8.5% WLWWL 16.35 pts, 82% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Chaminade Julienne 33%
8.0% WLWLW 17.40 pts, 95% in, 2% home (#7, range #4-out) Archbishop Alter 25%
6.3% WWWLW 22.15 pts, 100% in, 73% home (#4, range #1-#7) Wapakoneta 17%
6.0% WWWWL 21.15 pts, 100% in, 61% home (#4, range #1-#8) Trotwood-Madison 20%
2.6% WLLWW 17.05 pts, 94% in (#7, range #5-out) Chaminade Julienne 26%
(15% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Huber Heights Wayne (3-2 D1 R3) over Trotwood-Madison (3-2 D3 R12)
Week 10: St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14) over Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12)
Week 9: Sidney (3-2 D2 R8) over Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12)
Week 6: Dayton Belmont (1-4 D2 R8) over Dayton Dunbar (1-3 D3 R12)
Week 7: Anna (3-2 D5 R18) over Fort Recovery (2-3 D6 R24)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Wapakoneta (4-1)
18% Trotwood-Madison (3-2)
13% Vandalia Butler (3-2)
13% Kettering Archbishop Alter (4-1)
12% Dayton Chaminade Julienne (5-0)

Championship probabilities
3.8% Region 12 champ
0.5% Division 3 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 123.9 (3-1, #86, D3 #14) 97% (bubble if 5-5), 69% home, proj. #5
W3: 120.8 (2-1, #111, D3 #19) 84% (need 6-4), 41% home, proj. #5
W2: 122.0 (2-0, #96, D3 #16) 91% (need 6-4), 58% home, proj. #6
W1: 119.4 (1-0, #118, D3 #19) 78% (need 6-4), 42% home, proj. #4
W0: 116.1 (0-0, #174, D3 #39) 37% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home, proj. #8
Last year 114.8 (6-4)