Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#195 Hamilton Badin (3-2) 112.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 6:08PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#42 of 107 in Division III
#10 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 41-20 A #351 Hamilton Ross (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 11 (69%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 38-7 H #425 Oxford Talawanda (2-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 10-35 A #68 Trenton Edgewood (5-0 D2 R8), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 9-21 A #107 Franklin Bishop Fenwick (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-35 A #271 St Bernard Roger Bacon (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #273 Dayton Carroll (4-1 D3 R12), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Oct 06 (W7) H #356 Cincinnati Purcell Marian (4-1 D5 R20), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #47 Kettering Archbishop Alter (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 16 (83%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #72 Dayton Chaminade Julienne (5-0 D3 R12), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #435 Cincinnati Archbishop McNicholas (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 17 (84%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#32 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
15.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #8 seed in R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-8%, 5W-31%, 6W-44%, 7W-16%, 8W-1%

Playoff chance
46% now (bubble if 6-4), 6% home
58% with a win in next game, and 22% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.70 (7.05-14.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 12.40 (9.85-18.30) 10% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 15.70 (13.50-21.85) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#2-out)
7W: 20.05 (17.90-25.05) 99% in, 26% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
8W: 24.50 (23.20-26.65) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
4.6% WWWLW 19.75 pts, 100% in, 23% home (#5, range #2-#8) Trotwood-Madison 22%

Worst realistic scenario
4.0% LLLLW 9.05 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
30% WWLLW 15.25 pts, 52% in (#8, range #5-out) Chaminade Julienne 39%
14% LWLLW 11.95 pts, 2% in (out, range #6-out) Archbishop Alter 45%
9.4% WWLWW 20.00 pts, 99% in, 21% home (#6, range #2-out) Wapakoneta 20%
8.2% WLLLW 12.35 pts, 5% in (out, range #6-out) Chaminade Julienne 42%
5.0% WWLLL 13.75 pts, 25% in (out, range #5-out) Chaminade Julienne 47%
4.7% LWLWW 16.35 pts, 71% in (#8, range #5-out) Archbishop Alter 34%
(20% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Campbell County KY (4-1 D2) over Cincinnati Mount Healthy (2-3 D3 R12)
Week 7: Hamilton Ross (2-3 D3 R12) over Cincinnati Northwest (1-4 D3 R12)
Week 6: Sidney (3-2 D2 R8) over Piqua (3-2 D3 R12)
Week 7: Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12) over Celina (4-1 D3 R12)
Week 7: Sidney (3-2 D2 R8) over Tipp City Tippecanoe (3-2 D3 R12)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
26% Dayton Chaminade Julienne (5-0)
25% Kettering Archbishop Alter (4-1)
15% Trotwood-Madison (3-2)
13% Wapakoneta (4-1)
9% Franklin Bishop Fenwick (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 112.5 (2-2, #197, D3 #41) 45% (need 6-4), 6% home, proj. #8
W3: 114.1 (2-1, #177, D3 #36) 61% (need 6-4), 17% home, proj. #7
W2: 117.5 (2-0, #144, D3 #27) 80% (need 6-4), 39% home, proj. #5
W1: 111.9 (1-0, #202, D3 #40) 48% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. #7
W0: 111.1 (0-0, #236, D3 #55) 23% (need 7-3), 7% home, proj. out
Last year 110.6 (5-5)