Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#167 London (5-0) 115.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#14 of 106 in Division IV
#3 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 41-7 H #431 Urbana (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 7 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 61-0 A #654 London Madison-Plains (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 25 (90%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 57-7 H #234 Washington Court House Washington (4-1 D4 R16), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 56-13 A #490 Baltimore Liberty Union (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 17 (83%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 81-7 H #614 Circleville (0-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #296 Gahanna Columbus Academy (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #204 Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0 D6 R23), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #257 Columbus Bishop Ready (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 7 (67%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #508 Columbus Bexley (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #144 Whitehall-Yearling (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 7 (66%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances
Playoff quirks
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#98 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
17.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-3%, 7W-16%, 8W-36%, 9W-34%, 10W-11%

Playoff chance
72% now (need 8-2), 16% home
80% with a win in next game, and 54% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 11.30 (8.30-15.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 14.05 (10.50-19.35) 13% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 17.25 (12.75-23.70) 69% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
9W: 20.70 (17.05-25.40) 99% in, 19% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
10W: 24.40 (21.25-28.25) 100% in, 81% home, proj. #4 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
11% WWWWW 24.40 pts, 100% in, 81% home (#4, range #1-#7) Waverly 24%

Worst realistic scenario
2.2% LLLWL 11.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% WWWWL 20.25 pts, 99% in, 11% home (#6, range #3-out) Taft 22%
13% WLWWL 16.15 pts, 48% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Wyoming 41%
9.2% WLWWW 20.40 pts, 99% in, 13% home (#6, range #3-out) Taft 23%
6.6% LWWWL 17.45 pts, 74% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Wyoming 33%
6.3% WWLWL 17.65 pts, 81% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Clinton-Massie 33%
5.5% LLWWL 13.30 pts, 3% in (out, range #6-out)
(31% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Urbana (1-4 D4 R16) over Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan (2-3 D4 R16)
Week 6: Urbana (1-4 D4 R16) over Springfield Northwestern (3-2 D4 R16)
Week 6: Bellbrook (5-0 D3 R11) over Germantown Valley View (3-2 D4 R16)
Week 10: Baltimore Liberty Union (0-5 D5 R19) over Lancaster Fairfield Union (2-3 D4 R15)
Week 7: Urbana (1-4 D4 R16) over Springfield Shawnee (4-1 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
20% Clarksville Clinton-Massie (4-1)
19% Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0)
18% Cincinnati Taft (4-1)
17% Waverly (5-0)
16% Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1)

Championship probabilities
3.9% Region 16 champ
0.3% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 111.0 (4-0, #208, D4 #23) 56% (bubble if 8-2), 9% home, proj. #6
W3: 110.5 (3-0, #217, D4 #24) 58% (need 8-2), 12% home, proj. #7
W2: 107.7 (2-0, #258, D4 #31) 58% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home, proj. #8
W1: 106.1 (1-0, #285, D4 #37) 54% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home, proj. #7
W0: 103.8 (0-0, #332, D4 #48) 35% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home, proj. out
Last year 111.2 (8-3)