Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#106 Middletown Madison (5-0) 121.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#2 of 106 in Division V
#2 of 26 in Region 20
Eitel team page
Region 20 projections
Region 20 playoff probabilities
Region 20 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 22-0 A #246 Franklin (1-4 D3 R12), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 46-0 H #440 Reading (1-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 25 (90%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 24-16 A #179 Germantown Valley View (3-2 D4 R16), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 48-14 A #530 Camden Preble Shawnee (1-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 30 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 34-0 A #448 West Milton Milton-Union (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #653 New Lebanon Dixie (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 38 (99%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #597 Carlisle (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 35 (98%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #566 Dayton Northridge (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #492 Monroe (0-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 29 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #418 Waynesville (3-2 D5 R20), pick: W by 27 (94%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#29 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 10-0
21.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #2 seed in R20 playoffs

Win probabilities:
9W-10%, 10W-90%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 9-1), 99% home
100% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
9W: 19.45 (16.15-23.15) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)
10W: 21.85 (19.25-25.10) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
90% WWWWW 21.85 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Greeneview 15%

Worst realistic scenario
5.7% WWWWL 18.65 pts, 100% in, 97% home (#2, range #2-#6) Greeneview 19%

Most likely other scenarios
2.3% WWWLW 20.70 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Madeira 18%
1.2% WWLWW 19.75 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #2-#6) Greeneview 20%
0.5% WLWWW 20.63 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #2-#3) Madeira 23%

Teams to root for
Week 9: Waverly (5-0 D4 R16) over Minford (5-0 D5 R20)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
16% Jamestown Greeneview (4-1)
13% Cincinnati Madeira (3-2)
11% West Portsmouth Portsmouth West (4-1)
10% Minford (5-0)
9% Cincinnati Mariemont (4-1)

Championship probabilities
36% Region 20 champ
16% Division 5 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 121.5 (4-0, #109, D5 #2) in and 99% home, proj. #2
W3: 122.2 (3-0, #95, D5 #1) 99% (need 8-2), 97% home, proj. #2
W2: 118.9 (2-0, #134, D5 #4) 98% (need 7-3), 82% home, proj. #3
W1: 120.0 (1-0, #111, D5 #2) 95% (need 7-3), 70% home, proj. #2
W0: 113.9 (0-0, #203, D5 #9) 69% (need 7-3), 40% home, proj. #4
Last year 122.5 (11-3)