Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#240 Plain City Jonathan Alder (3-2) 109.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#32 of 106 in Division IV
#9 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-35 A #118 Marysville (3-2 D1 R2), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 28-14 A #453 Marion Harding (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 10-49 H #63 Bellville Clear Fork (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 28-12 A #413 Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-7 H #587 Lewistown Indian Lake (0-5 D5 R18), pick: W by 27 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #551 St Paris Graham Local (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #324 Springfield Kenton Ridge (4-1 D4 R16), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #207 Bellefontaine (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #295 New Carlisle Tecumseh (3-2 D2 R8), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #304 Springfield Shawnee (4-1 D4 R16), pick: W by 2 (56%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#30 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
13.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-4%, 5W-19%, 6W-37%, 7W-30%, 8W-9%

Playoff chance
32% now (need 7-3), 2% home
33% with a win in next game, and 22% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.45 (7.65-15.40) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.95 (10.95-19.10) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 17.45 (14.70-21.15) 67% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
8W: 20.75 (18.40-23.20) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
9.4% WWWWW 20.75 pts, 99% in, 16% home (#6, range #3-out) Taft 20%

Worst realistic scenario
2.8% WLLLL 6.85 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WWLWW 17.25 pts, 68% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Clinton-Massie 34%
10% WWLWL 13.95 pts, 4% in (out, range #6-out) Wyoming 56%
7.6% WWLLW 13.95 pts, 8% in (out, range #6-out) Wyoming 51%
6.7% WWWWL 17.25 pts, 58% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Wyoming 38%
6.5% WLLWW 13.90 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)
6.4% WWLLL 10.40 pts, out
(37% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Bellbrook (5-0 D3 R11) over Germantown Valley View (3-2 D4 R16)
Week 7: Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0 D6 R23) over London (5-0 D4 R16)
Week 10: Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan (2-3 D4 R16) over Urbana (1-4 D4 R16)
Week 7: Hillsboro (5-0 D3 R11) over Washington Court House Washington (4-1 D4 R16)
Week 10: Whitehall-Yearling (4-1 D2 R7) over London (5-0 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
28% Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0)
27% Clarksville Clinton-Massie (4-1)
14% Waverly (5-0)
13% Cincinnati Taft (4-1)
13% Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1)

Championship probabilities
0.5% Region 16 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 109.2 (2-2, #236, D4 #30) 35% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W3: 107.9 (1-2, #263, D4 #34) 21% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 112.2 (1-1, #198, D4 #21) 68% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home, proj. #4
W1: 107.4 (0-1, #260, D4 #34) 38% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
W0: 113.6 (0-0, #205, D4 #21) 59% (need 6-4), 24% home, proj. #7
Last year 116.8 (8-3)