Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#544 Apple Creek Waynedale (0-5) 84.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#80 of 106 in Division V
#23 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 10-14 A #514 Zoarville Tuscarawas Valley (2-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 12-17 A #301 West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19), pick: L by 23 (88%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 24-35 H #442 Wooster Triway (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 11 (73%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 20-21 H #360 Doylestown Chippewa (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-28 H #423 West Salem Northwestern (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #519 Dalton (1-4 D7 R25), pick: L by 7 (67%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #535 Rittman (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #528 Smithville (1-4 D6 R21), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #124 Creston Norwayne (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 30 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #289 Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 20 (88%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#40 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
1.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-15%, 1W-38%, 2W-34%, 3W-12%, 4W-1%

Best realistic scenario
7.8% WWWLL 3.80 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
15% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% LWLLL 1.50 pts, out
12% LWWLL 2.70 pts, out
11% LLWLL 1.10 pts, out
10% WWLLL 2.65 pts, out
10% WLLLL 1.45 pts, out
7.5% WLWLL 2.55 pts, out
(12% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.4 (0-4, #536, D5 #79) out
W3: 85.6 (0-3, #538, D5 #80) 1% , proj. out
W2: 85.9 (0-2, #543, D5 #81) 1% , proj. out
W1: 83.6 (0-1, #563, D5 #84) 1% , proj. out
W0: 87.5 (0-0, #549, D5 #84) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 79.5 (0-10)