Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#684 Atwater Waterloo (1-4) 64.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#105 of 110 in Division VI
#26 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 21-27 H #606 Newton Falls (4-1 D6 R21), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 3-47 A #386 Mantua Crestwood (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 18 (82%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 14-10 A #712 Bowerston Conotton Valley (0-5 D7 R25), pick: W by 14 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 3-59 A #192 McDonald (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 34 (97%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-28 A #632 Lowellville (2-3 D7 R25), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #692 Mineral Ridge (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 8 (69%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #679 North Jackson Jackson-Milton (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #244 Berlin Center Western Reserve (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #713 Sebring McKinley (0-5 D7 R25), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #200 New Middletown Springfield (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 35 (98%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#74 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
2.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-5%, 2W-27%, 3W-45%, 4W-24%

Best realistic scenario
23% WWLWL 2.90 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
4.9% LLLLL 0.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% WLLWL 1.85 pts, out
15% LWLWL 2.15 pts, out
15% LLLWL 1.05 pts, out
7.8% WWLLL 2.50 pts, out
7.1% WLLLL 1.45 pts, out
4.8% LWLLL 1.75 pts, out
(1% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 69.7 (1-3, #664, D6 #101) out
W3: 70.9 (1-2, #658, D6 #99) out
W2: 71.8 (0-2, #654, D6 #97) out
W1: 72.2 (0-1, #651, D6 #100) 1% , proj. out
W0: 78.5 (0-0, #630, D6 #90) 1% , proj. out
Last year 76.4 (4-6)