Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#505 Cleveland Central Catholic (0-5) 88.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#94 of 107 in Division III
#20 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 0-39 A #313 Parma Heights Holy Name (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 5 (59%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 6-45 H #125 Mentor Lake Catholic (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 28 (92%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 22-74 A #377 Elyria Catholic (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 15 (W4) L 12-65 H #53 Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Sep 22 (W5) L 28-50 A #345 Hunting Valley University School (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #559 Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Oct 06 (W7) A #225 Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Oct 13 (W8) H #601 Louisville St Thomas Aquinas (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 20 (W9) H #538 Warren John F Kennedy (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 7 (67%)
Oct 27 (W10) A #591 Garfield Heights Trinity (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 10 (72%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#33 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
4.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-9%, 2W-29%, 3W-39%, 4W-21%, 5W-2%

Best realistic scenario
17% WLWWW 5.60 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
3.5% LLWLL 1.20 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
12% LLWWW 4.40 pts, out
10% WLWLW 4.05 pts, out
8.7% WLWWL 4.00 pts, out
7.3% LLWLW 2.95 pts, out
5.8% LLWWL 2.80 pts, out
5.1% WLLWW 4.35 pts, out
(30% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 92.8 (0-4, #462, D3 #89) 1% , proj. out
W3: 94.2 (0-3, #443, D3 #87) 1% , proj. out
W2: 99.8 (0-2, #368, D3 #77) 5% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 99.2 (0-1, #378, D3 #80) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 106.0 (0-0, #298, D3 #68) 20% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
Last year 107.6 (6-4)