Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#504 East Palestine (2-3) 88.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#68 of 106 in Division V
#21 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 21-38 H #338 Salem (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 19-41 A #244 Berlin Center Western Reserve (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 14 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 48-37 H #599 Campbell Memorial (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 12 (74%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 27-40 A #470 Hanoverton United (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 39-7 H #605 Wellsville (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #292 Salineville Southern (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 15 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #626 Leetonia (3-2 D7 R25), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #549 Toronto (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #588 Lisbon David Anderson (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #409 Columbiana (2-3 D6 R21), pick: L by 8 (67%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#65 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
8.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-12%, 4W-35%, 5W-37%, 6W-14%, 7W-2%

Playoff chance
1% now
3% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.00 (6.45-11.40) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.25 (8.65-13.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 13.30 (12.05-14.65) 20% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.4% WWWWL 11.10 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Worst realistic scenario
3.4% LLLWL 4.10 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% LWWWL 7.70 pts, out
16% LWLWL 5.85 pts, out
8.5% LWWWW 9.85 pts, out
7.8% LWWLL 5.90 pts, out
6.0% LWLWW 8.05 pts, out
5.9% LWLLL 4.35 pts, out
(28% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
44% Akron Manchester (4-1)
14% Wickliffe (5-0)
11% Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0)
11% Canfield South Range (3-2)
8% Orrville (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 88.7 (1-3, #506, D5 #68) 1% , proj. out
W3: 93.3 (1-2, #451, D5 #64) 5% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 91.9 (0-2, #480, D5 #73) 6% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 93.2 (0-1, #466, D5 #67) 16% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 99.1 (0-0, #402, D5 #51) 44% (bubble if 7-3), 19% home, proj. #5
Last year 104.5 (8-3)