Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#591 Garfield Heights Trinity (2-3) 79.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#82 of 110 in Division VI
#20 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-12 A #690 Gates Mills Hawken (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 8-31 A #426 Independence (3-2 D6 R21), pick: W by 4 (57%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 24-30 H #576 Oberlin (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 13 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 24-20 A #675 Vienna Mathews (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 17 (82%)
Sep 22 (W5) L 28-42 H Western Reserve Academy OH (2-3 D5)
Sep 28 (W6) H #225 Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 26 (93%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #538 Warren John F Kennedy (1-4 D7 R25), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #559 Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph (0-5 D5 R17), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #601 Louisville St Thomas Aquinas (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 27 (W10) H #505 Cleveland Central Catholic (0-5 D3 R10), pick: L by 10 (72%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#104 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 4-6
4.81 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-11%, 3W-34%, 4W-36%, 5W-16%, 6W-3%

Best realistic scenario
2.5% LWWWW 7.40 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
11% LLLLL 2.33 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
12% LLLWL 3.45 pts, out
9.5% LLWLL 3.29 pts, out
9.3% LLWWL 4.46 pts, out
6.2% LWLWL 4.92 pts, out
6.1% LWLLL 3.75 pts, out
5.8% LLLLW 3.65 pts, out
(38% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 81.2 (2-2, #576, D6 #76) out
W3: 84.2 (1-2, #557, D6 #73) 1% , proj. out
W2: 88.4 (1-1, #513, D6 #58) 1% , proj. out
W1: 96.2 (1-0, #422, D6 #36) 27% (bubble if 8-2), 6% home, proj. out
W0: 94.4 (0-0, #482, D6 #46) 21% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 98.3 (5-5)