Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#690 Gates Mills Hawken (0-5) 63.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#104 of 106 in Division V
#27 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 12-42 H #591 Garfield Heights Trinity (2-3 D6 R21), pick: L by 8 (65%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 8-69 A #445 Rocky River Lutheran West (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 10 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 22-61 H #225 Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 31 (95%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 23-25 H #662 Brooklyn (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-59 A #664 Crestline (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #303 Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Oct 13 (W8) A #523 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #603 Painesville Harvey (0-5 D3 R9), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Oct 27 (W10) A Western Reserve Academy OH, [W by 9, 71%]

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#91 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 89
Projected record 1-8
1.51 Harbin points (divisor 89)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-30%, 1W-54%, 2W-14%, 3W-1%

Best realistic scenario
3.3% LWLW 3.81 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
30% LLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
45% LLLW 1.51 pts, out
10% LLWW 2.12 pts, out
6.5% LLWL 0.61 pts, out
2.4% LWLL 2.24 pts, out
(2% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 68.3 (0-4, #670, D5 #101) out
W3: 73.4 (0-3, #639, D5 #99) out
W2: 74.8 (0-2, #635, D5 #99) 1% , proj. out
W1: 79.2 (0-1, #602, D5 #92) 2% (bubble if 7-2), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 84.9 (0-0, #576, D5 #89) 9% (bubble if 7-2), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 80.6 (3-7)