Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#561 Middlefield Cardinal (1-4) 82.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#73 of 110 in Division VI
#18 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 19-40 A #402 Garrettsville Garfield (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 60-14 H #676 Andover Pymatuning Valley (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-16 A #421 Orwell Grand Valley (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 18 (83%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-58 A #110 Kirtland (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 35 (97%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-34 H #287 Wickliffe (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 20 (88%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #629 Fairport Harbor Fairport Harding (3-2 D7 R25), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #426 Independence (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #368 Cuyahoga Heights (4-1 D7 R25), pick: L by 18 (86%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #543 Richmond Heights (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #624 Burton Berkshire (1-4 D5 R17), pick: W by 6 (64%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#23 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
4.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-3%, 2W-21%, 3W-39%, 4W-28%, 5W-8%

Best realistic scenario
2.7% WLWWW 8.80 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
3.4% LLLLL 1.50 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% WLLLW 4.40 pts, out
15% WLLWW 5.95 pts, out
9.7% WLLLL 3.05 pts, out
9.0% WLLWL 4.90 pts, out
6.3% LLLLW 2.50 pts, out
6.0% LLLWW 4.35 pts, out
(32% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 82.8 (1-3, #561, D6 #72) 1% , proj. out
W3: 84.5 (1-2, #555, D6 #72) 1% , proj. out
W2: 85.0 (1-1, #552, D6 #72) 1% , proj. out
W1: 80.7 (0-1, #593, D6 #79) 1% , proj. out
W0: 86.0 (0-0, #563, D6 #73) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 84.1 (4-6)