Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#692 Mineral Ridge (0-5) 62.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#109 of 110 in Division VI
#28 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 34-36 H #676 Andover Pymatuning Valley (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-41 H #588 Lisbon David Anderson (2-3 D7 R25), pick: L by 15 (78%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 15-28 A #606 Newton Falls (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-34 H #632 Lowellville (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-42 H #244 Berlin Center Western Reserve (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 35 (98%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #684 Atwater Waterloo (1-4 D6 R21), pick: L by 8 (69%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #192 McDonald (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 37 (99%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #200 New Middletown Springfield (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 39 (99%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #679 North Jackson Jackson-Milton (1-4 D7 R25), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #713 Sebring McKinley (0-5 D7 R25), pick: W by 7 (67%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#91 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
1.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-11%, 1W-39%, 2W-39%, 3W-11%

Best realistic scenario
11% WLLWW 2.55 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
11% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
25% LLLLW 0.35 pts, out
17% WLLLW 1.80 pts, out
17% LLLWW 1.45 pts, out
6.9% WLLLL 1.10 pts, out
6.6% LLLWL 1.05 pts, out
4.7% WLLWL 2.20 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 62.9 (0-4, #693, D6 #108) out
W3: 68.5 (0-3, #671, D6 #102) out
W2: 72.7 (0-2, #645, D6 #94) out
W1: 76.0 (0-1, #638, D6 #94) 1% , proj. out
W0: 84.5 (0-0, #583, D6 #78) 4% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 84.4 (6-4)