Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#421 Orwell Grand Valley (4-1) 96.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#53 of 106 in Division V
#17 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-6 A #595 Jefferson Area (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 41-21 H #624 Burton Berkshire (1-4 D5 R17), pick: W by 17 (80%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 16-7 H #561 Middlefield Cardinal (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 18 (83%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 8-44 A #216 Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 12 (75%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 36-0 H #668 Southington Chalker (3-2 D7 R25), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #676 Andover Pymatuning Valley (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #675 Vienna Mathews (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #515 Windham (4-1 D7 R25), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #694 Newbury (0-5 D7 R25), pick: W by 29 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #499 Conneaut (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 6 (63%)

Lists on which the team appears
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#101 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
12.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-1%, 7W-14%, 8W-43%, 9W-42%

Playoff chance
43% now (need 9-1), 3% home
44% with a win in next game, and 22% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 9.70 (8.05-14.40) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 12.40 (10.15-17.20) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out
9W: 15.15 (13.25-17.95) 85% in, 6% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
42% WWWWW 15.15 pts, 85% in, 6% home (#7, range #2-out) Wickliffe 20%

Worst realistic scenario
9.0% WWLWL 9.30 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% WWWWL 12.40 pts, 13% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Manchester 38%
15% WWLWW 12.05 pts, 9% in (out, range #6-out) Manchester 42%
2.4% LWWWW 13.80 pts, 44% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Manchester 34%
(9% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: St Clairsville (5-0 D4 R15) over Canfield South Range (3-2 D5 R17)
Week 9: Wintersville Indian Creek (3-2 D4 R13) over Columbiana Crestview (3-2 D5 R17)
Week 10: Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14) over Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17)
Week 9: Middlefield Cardinal (1-4 D6 R21) over Richmond Heights (2-3 D7 R25)
Week 6: Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21) over Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
20% Akron Manchester (4-1)
20% Wickliffe (5-0)
16% Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0)
11% Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0)
11% Orrville (4-1)

Championship probabilities
0.5% Region 17 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.9 (3-1, #406, D5 #51) 41% (need 9-1), 5% home, proj. out
W3: 99.8 (3-0, #369, D5 #45) 71% (bubble if 8-2), 33% home, proj. #5
W2: 101.6 (2-0, #351, D5 #38) 82% (need 8-2), 50% home, proj. #2
W1: 101.6 (1-0, #342, D5 #36) 83% (bubble if 7-3), 50% home, proj. #4
W0: 98.7 (0-0, #409, D5 #53) 66% (bubble if 7-3), 36% home, proj. #4
Last year 103.7 (10-1)