Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#596 Richmond Heights (3-6) 78.8

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#47 of 108 in Division VII
#12 of 27 in Region 25
Eitel team page
Region 25 projections
Region 25 playoff probabilities
Region 25 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 8-17 H #533 Rittman (3-6 D7 R25), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 52-0 H #624 Louisville St Thomas Aquinas (2-7 D7 R25), pick: L by 14 (76%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 36-23 A #662 Lowellville (3-6 D7 R25), pick: W by 14 (77%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-21 A #359 Cuyahoga Heights (7-2 D7 R25), pick: L by 21 (88%)
Sep 21 (W5) L by forfeit A #75 Kirtland (9-0 D6 R21)
Sep 28 (W6) L 8-45 H #350 Wickliffe (8-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 28-15 A #629 Burton Berkshire (1-8 D5 R17), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 16-36 H #450 Independence (6-3 D6 R21), pick: L by 7 (67%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 14-36 A #560 Middlefield Cardinal (3-6 D6 R21), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #639 Fairport Harbor Fairport Harding (3-6 D7 R25), pick: W by 4 (60%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#28 of 108 in Division 7

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
5.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R25 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-40%, 4W-60%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 5.25 (5.25-6.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Playoff scenarios
60% W 5.25 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
40% L 3.70 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 78.8 (3-6, #596, D7 #47) 1% , proj. out
W8: 81.0 (3-5, #578, D7 #46) 7% , proj. out
W7: 83.4 (3-4, #554, D7 #39) 39% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. #7
W6: 82.5 (2-4, #562, D7 #39) 21% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W5: 82.7 (2-3, #562, D7 #39) 33% (need 5-5), 3% home, proj. out
W4: 82.7 (2-2, #563, D7 #42) 29% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home, proj. out
W3: 82.0 (2-1, #576, D7 #42) 21% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 82.8 (1-1, #564, D7 #38) 17% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 73.8 (0-1, #643, D7 #61) 2% , proj. out
W0: 78.3 (0-0, #632, D7 #60) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 80.1 (3-7)