Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#445 Rocky River Lutheran West (4-1) 94.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#68 of 106 in Division IV
#21 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 47-13 A #687 New London (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 69-8 H #690 Gates Mills Hawken (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 10 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 41-2 H #526 Parma Normandy (3-2 D2 R6), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-35 H #181 Medina Buckeye (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 50-6 A #643 Wellington (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 18 (84%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #253 Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #662 Brooklyn (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #576 Oberlin (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #370 Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #391 Fairview Park Fairview (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 1 (52%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#104 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 7-3
11.28 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-10%, 6W-34%, 7W-38%, 8W-16%, 9W-2%

Playoff chance
4% now (need 9-1), 1% home
15% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 11.28 (8.76-15.57) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 14.16 (11.73-18.65) 15% in, 0% home, proj. out
9W: 17.23 (16.07-19.45) 78% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.4% WWWWL 15.32 pts, 34% in (out, range #6-out) Clear Fork 52%

Worst realistic scenario
7.5% LWLLL 6.59 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% LWWLL 8.36 pts, out
16% LWWLW 10.32 pts, out
11% LWWWL 11.94 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
8.8% LWWWW 14.05 pts, 12% in (out, range #6-out) St Marys Memorial 48%
5.3% LWLLW 8.56 pts, out
4.9% WWWLL 11.53 pts, out
(24% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 9: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Shelby (3-2 D4 R14)
Week 8: Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 6: Archbold (4-1 D5 R18) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 9: Wellington (1-4 D6 R21) over Sheffield Brookside (1-4 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
41% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
37% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
6% Kenton (3-2)
5% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
5% Huron (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 92.2 (3-1, #474, D4 #75) 3% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 93.0 (3-0, #456, D4 #71) 6% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 89.3 (2-0, #506, D4 #82) 4% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 87.8 (1-0, #523, D4 #87) 6% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 85.7 (0-0, #566, D4 #95) 2% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 83.0 (4-6)