Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#308 Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0) 104.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#23 of 110 in Division VI
#11 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 40-14 H #455 Cadiz Harrison Central (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 9 (66%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-3 H #489 Warsaw River View (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 18 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 29-28 A #507 Danville (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 13 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 48-0 A #637 New Philadelphia Tuscarawas Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 28 (94%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 28-0 H #633 Malvern (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 29 (95%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #593 Uhrichsville Claymont (0-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #301 West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #103 Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0 D4 R15), pick: L by 18 (86%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #685 Newcomerstown (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 35 (98%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #514 Zoarville Tuscarawas Valley (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 15 (81%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks
Playoff quirks
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#82 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
13.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-1%, 7W-11%, 8W-43%, 9W-39%, 10W-5%

Playoff chance
41% now (need 9-1), 6% home
42% with a win in next game, and 27% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 12.00 (9.05-17.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 13.90 (10.80-20.40) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out
9W: 17.45 (14.55-22.60) 77% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#1-out)
10W: 21.80 (18.95-24.50) 100% in, 90% home, proj. #3 (#1-#8)

Best realistic scenario
5.4% WWWWW 21.80 pts, 100% in, 90% home (#3, range #1-#8) Norwayne 21%

Worst realistic scenario
7.0% WLLWL 11.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
33% WWLWW 17.30 pts, 75% in, 2% home (#8, range #3-out) Mogadore 32%
31% WLLWW 13.45 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out) Mogadore 58%
7.7% WWLWL 15.30 pts, 25% in (out, range #5-out) Mogadore 50%
4.4% WLWWW 17.95 pts, 87% in, 6% home (#7, range #3-out) Kirtland 26%
3.0% LLLWW 12.55 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
2.8% LWLWW 16.40 pts, 51% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Mogadore 47%
(5% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Beverly Fort Frye (4-0 D6 R23) over Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21)
Week 9: Warsaw River View (3-2 D4 R15) over Cambridge (1-4 D4 R15)
Week 10: Warsaw River View (3-2 D4 R15) over Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19)
Week 7: Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14) over Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21)
Week 10: Girard (4-1 D4 R13) over Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
28% Mogadore (4-1)
25% Kirtland (5-0)
16% Salineville Southern (5-0)
9% Creston Norwayne (4-1)
8% Rootstown (5-0)

Championship probabilities
0.7% Region 21 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.7 (4-0, #285, D6 #19) 53% (need 9-1), 9% home, proj. out
W3: 105.1 (3-0, #299, D6 #17) 44% (need 9-1), 8% home, proj. out
W2: 105.6 (2-0, #286, D6 #18) 53% (bubble if 8-2), 15% home, proj. out
W1: 104.3 (1-0, #301, D6 #18) 65% (bubble if 7-3), 30% home, proj. #4
W0: 102.2 (0-0, #366, D6 #30) 46% (need 7-3), 19% home, proj. out
Last year 102.0 (5-5)