Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#423 West Salem Northwestern (2-3) 96.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#54 of 106 in Division V
#18 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 28-43 A #301 West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 28-24 H #378 Sullivan Black River (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 11 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-41 H #253 Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 28-42 A #289 Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 28-14 A #544 Apple Creek Waynedale (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #535 Rittman (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 11 (75%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #124 Creston Norwayne (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 26 (93%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #360 Doylestown Chippewa (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #519 Dalton (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #528 Smithville (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 11 (74%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#25 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
9.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-9%, 4W-30%, 5W-40%, 6W-18%, 7W-1%

Playoff chance
2% now (need 7-3), 1% home
2% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.15 (7.05-13.60) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.35 (9.55-15.10) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 14.95 (13.00-16.30) 71% in, 2% home, proj. #7
Best realistic scenario
15% WLWWW 11.15 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
2.9% LLLLW 5.60 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% WLLWW 8.70 pts, out
9.9% WLLLW 7.25 pts, out
7.4% WLWLW 9.70 pts, out
6.2% LLLWW 7.05 pts, out
6.2% WLLWL 7.40 pts, out
5.4% WLWWL 9.90 pts, out
(26% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
22% Akron Manchester (4-1)
21% Wickliffe (5-0)
17% Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0)
13% Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0)
7% Orrville (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 94.4 (1-3, #446, D5 #57) 1% , proj. out
W3: 95.5 (1-2, #425, D5 #57) 3% , proj. out
W2: 98.9 (1-1, #382, D5 #46) 28% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home, proj. out
W1: 94.9 (0-1, #441, D5 #63) 11% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 102.4 (0-0, #358, D5 #35) 35% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home, proj. out
Last year 102.0 (5-5)