Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#337 Youngstown Ursuline (0-5) 102.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#47 of 106 in Division IV
#14 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 0-35 A #114 Cleveland Benedictine (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 11 (71%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-34 A #217 Youngstown East (3-2 D2 R5), pick: W by 14 (75%)
Sep 08 (W3) L 14-33 A #125 Mentor Lake Catholic (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 28 (93%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 28-56 A #2 Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 40 (99%)
Sep 22 (W5) L 7-38 A #45 Warren G Harding (3-2 D2 R5), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #104 Louisville (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #185 Columbus Bishop Watterson (2-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 12 (75%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #86 Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #95 Youngstown Cardinal Mooney (2-3 D4 R13), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #27 Akron St Vincent-St Mary (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 30 (96%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#1 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
2.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-50%, 1W-39%, 2W-10%, 3W-1%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.1% LWWLL 7.00 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
50% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% LWLLL 2.95 pts, out
7.2% LLLWL 2.70 pts, out
5.8% WLLLL 2.70 pts, out
5.0% LLWLL 4.10 pts, out
2.9% LWLWL 5.25 pts, out
2.3% WWLLL 5.55 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 101.9 (0-4, #342, D4 #48) out
W3: 102.4 (0-3, #332, D4 #46) 1% , proj. out
W2: 101.5 (0-2, #353, D4 #51) 1% , proj. out
W1: 113.4 (0-1, #180, D4 #19) 1% , proj. out
W0: 118.5 (0-0, #139, D4 #13) 11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 118.8 (2-8)