Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#266 Archbold (4-1) 107.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#21 of 106 in Division V
#8 of 27 in Region 18
Eitel team page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 24-7 H #408 Hicksville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 7 (63%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 28-27 A #405 Findlay Liberty-Benton (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 23-14 H #279 Millbury Lake (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 10 (70%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 35-7 H #443 Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 18 (84%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-28 A #327 Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #310 Bryan (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #168 Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 2 (56%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #500 Delta (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #429 Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #483 Swanton (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 19 (86%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#30 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
16.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R18 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-3%, 6W-16%, 7W-38%, 8W-34%, 9W-8%

Playoff chance
89% now (bubble if 6-4), 42% home
98% with a win in next game, and 77% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 11.45 (9.35-14.15) 9% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.85 (10.50-17.70) 61% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
7W: 16.45 (13.25-20.75) 97% in, 18% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
8W: 19.40 (16.40-23.55) 100% in, 79% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
9W: 23.15 (21.10-25.35) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
8.5% WWWWW 23.15 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) Anna 20%

Worst realistic scenario
5.4% LLWLW 13.25 pts, 44% in (out, range #5-out) Genoa Area 37%

Most likely other scenarios
22% WLWWW 18.95 pts, 100% in, 69% home (#4, range #1-#8) Miami East 34%
15% LLWWW 15.70 pts, 95% in, 4% home (#6, range #3-out) Liberty Center 24%
8.9% WLWLW 16.55 pts, 98% in, 17% home (#6, range #2-out) Miami East 27%
5.9% LWWWW 19.85 pts, 100% in, 94% home (#3, range #1-#7) Miami East 19%
5.4% WLWWL 17.05 pts, 99% in, 16% home (#5, range #3-out) Miami East 27%
3.7% LLWWL 13.80 pts, 60% in (#8, range #5-out) Genoa Area 39%
(26% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Hicksville (3-2 D6 R22) over Sherwood Fairview (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 6: Covington (2-3 D6 R24) over Casstown Miami East (4-1 D5 R18)
Week 9: Findlay Liberty-Benton (1-4 D6 R22) over Van Buren (1-4 D5 R18)
Week 10: Hicksville (3-2 D6 R22) over Haviland Wayne Trace (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 7: Huron (4-1 D4 R14) over Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
21% Casstown Miami East (4-1)
15% Liberty Center (5-0)
14% Marion Pleasant (5-0)
13% Richwood North Union (4-1)
11% Genoa Area (5-0)

Championship probabilities
3.1% Region 18 champ
0.3% Division 5 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 112.9 (4-0, #192, D5 #10) 98% (bubble if 6-4), 80% home, proj. #1
W3: 111.4 (3-0, #208, D5 #12) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 69% home, proj. #1
W2: 112.2 (2-0, #196, D5 #10) 87% (need 7-3), 55% home, proj. #4
W1: 111.2 (1-0, #212, D5 #12) 74% (need 7-3), 43% home, proj. #5
W0: 109.0 (0-0, #263, D5 #16) 51% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home, proj. #5
Last year 116.0 (9-3)