Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#479 Ashland Crestview (2-3) 91.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#56 of 110 in Division VI
#16 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 29-26 H #363 Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 13-33 A #289 Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 10 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-24 H #383 Carey (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 26-19 H #586 Collins Western Reserve (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 13-21 H #416 Ashland Mapleton (4-1 D7 R25), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #376 Norwalk St Paul (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #498 Monroeville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #687 New London (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #430 Greenwich South Central (5-0 D7 R26), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #578 Plymouth (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 9 (69%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#27 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
8.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-8%, 4W-28%, 5W-38%, 6W-21%, 7W-4%

Playoff chance
9% now (need 7-3), 1% home
26% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.90 (6.85-12.85) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.50 (9.45-14.55) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 14.15 (12.70-16.15) 98% in, 25% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.3% WWWWW 14.15 pts, 98% in, 25% home (#6, range #2-out) Gibsonburg 15%

Worst realistic scenario
6.0% LLWLL 4.20 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% LLWLW 6.00 pts, out
13% LWWLW 8.15 pts, out
9.9% LWWWW 11.45 pts, 16% in (out, range #5-out) Wynford 21%
9.7% LLWWW 9.30 pts, out
5.4% LWWLL 6.40 pts, out
5.4% WWWLW 10.95 pts, 5% in (out, range #7-out) Hillsdale 26%
(33% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22) over Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3 D4 R13)
Week 6: Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14) over Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6)
Week 7: Norwalk St Paul (4-1 D7 R26) over Ashland Mapleton (4-1 D7 R25)
Week 7: Lawrenceburg IN (2-4 D4) over
Week 9: Sycamore Mohawk (5-0 D7 R26) over Bucyrus Wynford (4-1 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
15% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
13% Columbus Grove (3-2)
12% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
12% Gibsonburg (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 91.4 (2-2, #482, D6 #56) 27% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
W3: 90.1 (1-2, #496, D6 #59) 24% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
W2: 92.6 (1-1, #467, D6 #45) 28% (need 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
W1: 96.8 (1-0, #411, D6 #32) 51% (need 7-3), 21% home, proj. #6
W0: 97.0 (0-0, #444, D6 #39) 38% (need 7-3), 15% home, proj. out
Last year 102.7 (7-3)