Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#600 Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5) 78.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#91 of 106 in Division V
#26 of 27 in Region 18
Eitel team page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-20 A #379 Gibsonburg (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 21 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 19-26 H #557 Kansas Lakota (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 4 (57%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-30 A #293 Attica Seneca East (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 30 (94%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-42 A #276 Pemberville Eastwood (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 36 (98%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-26 A #279 Millbury Lake (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #109 Genoa Area (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 34 (98%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #432 Rossford (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #516 Fostoria (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #311 Tontogany Otsego (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #645 Elmore Woodmore (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 6 (64%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#20 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
0.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R18 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-20%, 1W-49%, 2W-27%, 3W-5%

Best realistic scenario
2.9% LWWLW 3.85 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
20% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
37% LLLLW 0.40 pts, out
13% LLWLW 1.65 pts, out
7.9% LWLLW 2.15 pts, out
6.8% LLWLL 1.25 pts, out
3.9% LWLLL 1.75 pts, out
2.9% LLLWW 3.35 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 77.3 (0-4, #614, D5 #92) out
W3: 76.7 (0-3, #619, D5 #93) out
W2: 76.6 (0-2, #619, D5 #96) out
W1: 76.8 (0-1, #630, D5 #99) 1% , proj. out
W0: 75.8 (0-0, #648, D5 #100) 1% , proj. out
Last year 70.9 (1-9)