Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#613 Bluffton (1-4) 76.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#88 of 110 in Division VI
#23 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 28-6 A #674 Cory-Rawson (1-4 D7 R26), pick: W by 19 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 12-35 A #471 Van Buren (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 13-21 H #573 Defiance Ayersville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-53 A #285 Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 17-28 A #579 Paulding (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 3 (58%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #493 Harrod Allen East (2-3 D6 R22), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #570 Delphos Jefferson (1-4 D6 R24), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #247 Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #458 Ada (2-3 D6 R22), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #281 Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 15 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#70 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
2.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-35%, 2W-44%, 3W-18%, 4W-3%

Best realistic scenario
2.9% WLLWL 5.10 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
35% LLLLL 1.40 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
20% LWLLL 2.25 pts, out
12% WLLLL 3.15 pts, out
8.7% LLLWL 3.05 pts, out
6.6% WWLLL 4.30 pts, out
4.9% LWLWL 4.20 pts, out
(10% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 80.6 (1-3, #580, D6 #77) 1% , proj. out
W3: 81.4 (1-2, #581, D6 #77) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 84.2 (1-1, #554, D6 #73) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 92.2 (1-0, #473, D6 #45) 14% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 93.4 (0-0, #490, D6 #49) 14% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 91.6 (4-6)