Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#509 Castalia Margaretta (3-2) 88.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#64 of 110 in Division VI
#19 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) L 12-41 N #293 Attica Seneca East (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 5 (59%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 37-18 A #586 Collins Western Reserve (1-4 D6 R22), pick: L by 2 (53%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 16-46 A #498 Monroeville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 59-0 H #638 Lakeside Danbury (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 17 (83%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 22-20 H #502 Willard (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #315 Tiffin Calvert (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #557 Kansas Lakota (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #379 Gibsonburg (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #569 Sandusky St Mary Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #615 Fremont St Joseph Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 7 (65%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#65 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
8.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-2%, 4W-15%, 5W-36%, 6W-34%, 7W-12%

Playoff chance
18% now (need 7-3), 4% home
49% with a win in next game, and 11% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.65 (7.05-12.35) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.95 (9.30-14.55) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 13.60 (12.50-16.05) 92% in, 19% home, proj. #6 (#1-out)
8W: 16.55 (15.90-17.55) 100% in, 96% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
5.5% LWWWW 13.55 pts, 95% in, 12% home (#6, range #1-out) Wynford 14%

Worst realistic scenario
2.1% LLLLL 4.85 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
17% LWLWW 10.20 pts, 3% in (out, range #5-out) Seneca East 33%
13% LLLWW 8.15 pts, out
8.2% LWLLW 8.65 pts, out
6.9% LWLWL 8.70 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.8% LLLLW 6.60 pts, out
5.0% LLLWL 6.45 pts, out
(37% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Collins Western Reserve (1-4 D6 R22) over Plymouth (2-3 D7 R25)
Week 8: Collins Western Reserve (1-4 D6 R22) over Monroeville (2-3 D7 R26)
Week 7: Monroeville (2-3 D7 R26) over Ashland Crestview (2-3 D6 R22)
Week 9: Greenwich South Central (5-0 D7 R26) over Ashland Crestview (2-3 D6 R22)
Week 6: Massillon Tuslaw (2-3 D5 R17) over Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
14% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
13% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
12% Columbus Grove (3-2)
10% Northwood (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.7 (2-2, #530, D6 #66) 9% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 86.9 (1-2, #524, D6 #64) 17% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W2: 93.0 (1-1, #459, D6 #43) 47% (need 7-3), 13% home, proj. #8
W1: 86.1 (0-1, #544, D6 #67) 12% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 92.7 (0-0, #498, D6 #52) 36% (need 7-3), 15% home, proj. #8
Last year 94.0 (5-5)