Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#253 Columbia Station Columbia (3-2) 107.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#16 of 110 in Division VI
#8 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-6 A #426 Independence (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 4 (57%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-49 H #110 Kirtland (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 19 (84%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 41-7 A #423 West Salem Northwestern (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-0 H #476 La Grange Keystone (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 18 (84%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 35-38 A #181 Medina Buckeye (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #445 Rocky River Lutheran West (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #370 Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 8 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #662 Brooklyn (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #391 Fairview Park Fairview (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #576 Oberlin (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 26 (93%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#9 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
17.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #8 seed in R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-3%, 6W-18%, 7W-43%, 8W-36%

Playoff chance
71% now (need 7-3), 24% home
80% with a win in next game, and 35% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 11.30 (8.30-16.05) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.20 (10.95-18.80) 11% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 17.15 (14.15-20.75) 76% in, 3% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 20.30 (18.00-22.75) 100% in, 62% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)

Best realistic scenario
36% WWWWW 20.30 pts, 100% in, 62% home (#4, range #1-#8) Norwayne 25%

Worst realistic scenario
5.1% LLWWW 13.15 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Most likely other scenarios
20% WLWWW 16.55 pts, 64% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Mogadore 37%
13% WWWLW 18.05 pts, 94% in, 6% home (#6, range #3-out) Kirtland 24%
8.3% LWWWW 16.95 pts, 73% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) Mogadore 36%
6.7% WLWLW 14.25 pts, 7% in (out, range #6-out) Mogadore 67%
3.0% LWWLW 14.75 pts, 15% in (out, range #7-out) Mogadore 71%
(8% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19) over Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0 D6 R21)
Week 10: Beverly Fort Frye (4-0 D6 R23) over Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21)
Week 10: Girard (4-1 D4 R13) over Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21)
Week 8: West Salem Northwestern (2-3 D5 R17) over Doylestown Chippewa (3-2 D5 R17)
Week 10: Independence (3-2 D6 R21) over Cuyahoga Heights (4-1 D7 R25)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Salineville Southern (5-0)
17% Mogadore (4-1)
16% Creston Norwayne (4-1)
16% Kirtland (5-0)
11% Rootstown (5-0)

Championship probabilities
2.4% Region 21 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.4 (3-1, #249, D6 #13) 84% (need 7-3), 45% home, proj. #4
W3: 109.2 (2-1, #236, D6 #12) 81% (need 7-3), 43% home, proj. #4
W2: 105.8 (1-1, #283, D6 #17) 63% (need 7-3), 25% home, proj. #7
W1: 103.5 (1-0, #313, D6 #19) 65% (bubble if 6-4), 30% home, proj. #5
W0: 98.0 (0-0, #419, D6 #34) 27% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home, proj. out
Last year 97.0 (5-5)