Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#541 Defiance Tinora (1-4) 84.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#69 of 110 in Division VI
#20 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 3-35 A #168 Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-36 H #443 Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-13 H #500 Delta (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-39 A #434 Haviland Wayne Trace (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 7-6 H #573 Defiance Ayersville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #631 Holgate (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #283 Edgerton (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 15 (82%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #408 Hicksville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 20 (88%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #425 Sherwood Fairview (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 16 (82%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #580 Antwerp (3-2 D7 R26), pick: W by 3 (57%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#33 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
5.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-5%, 2W-27%, 3W-40%, 4W-22%, 5W-5%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.60 (9.40-12.85) 10% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.3% WLWWW 10.20 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Worst realistic scenario
5.3% LLLLL 1.85 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
22% WLLLW 5.20 pts, out
13% WLLLL 2.95 pts, out
9.4% LLLLW 3.75 pts, out
8.9% WLLWW 7.95 pts, out
5.9% WLWLW 7.40 pts, out
4.5% WLLWL 5.75 pts, out
(28% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
24% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
18% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
18% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
11% Gibsonburg (4-1)
11% Columbus Grove (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 81.2 (0-4, #574, D6 #75) 1% , proj. out
W3: 85.5 (0-3, #542, D6 #68) 6% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 92.3 (0-2, #471, D6 #46) 19% (need 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W1: 96.9 (0-1, #407, D6 #31) 30% (need 7-3), 10% home, proj. out
W0: 103.7 (0-0, #334, D6 #21) 53% (need 7-3), 28% home, proj. #4
Last year 100.6 (6-4)