Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#570 Delphos Jefferson (1-4) 81.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#75 of 110 in Division VI
#17 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 0-49 H #330 Lima Shawnee (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-47 A #333 Versailles (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 11 (72%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 47-0 A #714 Stryker (0-5 D7 R26), pick: W by 32 (95%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-38 A #458 Ada (2-3 D6 R22), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-50 A #493 Harrod Allen East (2-3 D6 R22), pick: L by 2 (56%)
Sep 29 (W6) H #579 Paulding (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 12 (75%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #613 Bluffton (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #281 Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #285 Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #247 Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 20 (88%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#37 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
1.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-13%, 2W-41%, 3W-38%, 4W-7%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.5% WWLWL 5.90 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
13% LLLLL 0.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
29% WWLLL 2.70 pts, out
22% LWLLL 1.50 pts, out
16% WLLLL 1.60 pts, out
2.2% LWLWL 4.70 pts, out
2.1% WWWLL 5.45 pts, out
(13% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.8 (1-3, #529, D6 #65) 1% , proj. out
W3: 91.5 (1-2, #476, D6 #49) 2% , proj. out
W2: 90.9 (0-2, #494, D6 #54) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 96.2 (0-1, #420, D6 #34) 10% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 104.0 (0-0, #328, D6 #18) 37% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home, proj. out
Last year 101.2 (6-4)