Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#645 Elmore Woodmore (0-5) 72.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#96 of 110 in Division VI
#24 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-49 A #406 Northwood (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 10 (68%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 12-38 H #379 Gibsonburg (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 14 (76%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 10-48 A #236 Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 28 (93%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 13-42 H #432 Rossford (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 13 (76%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-38 A #516 Fostoria (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #311 Tontogany Otsego (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 29 (96%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #109 Genoa Area (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 36 (98%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #276 Pemberville Eastwood (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 34 (98%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #279 Millbury Lake (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 30 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #600 Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18), pick: L by 6 (64%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#16 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 0-10
0.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-60%, 1W-37%, 2W-3%

Best realistic scenario
0.9% LLWLW 3.80 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
60% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
32% LLLLW 0.45 pts, out
1.9% LLWLL 2.90 pts, out
1.7% WLLLL 2.55 pts, out
1.1% LLLWL 3.00 pts, out
0.8% WLLLW 3.45 pts, out
0.6% LLLWW 3.45 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 72.9 (0-4, #645, D6 #96) out
W3: 72.8 (0-3, #646, D6 #95) 1% , proj. out
W2: 72.5 (0-2, #647, D6 #95) 1% , proj. out
W1: 74.9 (0-1, #642, D6 #96) 1% , proj. out
W0: 80.1 (0-0, #618, D6 #87) 1% , proj. out
Last year 75.6 (2-8)