Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#405 Findlay Liberty-Benton (1-4) 97.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#37 of 110 in Division VI
#8 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 18-19 A #323 Bucyrus Wynford (4-1 D6 R22), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 27-28 H #266 Archbold (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-34 H #214 Leipsic (5-0 D7 R26), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-41 H #198 Pandora-Gilboa (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 49-10 A #695 North Baltimore (1-4 D7 R26), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #536 Mount Blanchard Riverdale (3-2 D7 R28), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #320 Arlington (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #457 Bascom Hopewell-Loudon (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #471 Van Buren (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #166 McComb (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 15 (80%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#15 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
5.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-2%, 2W-14%, 3W-35%, 4W-35%, 5W-12%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.00 (9.10-12.95) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.2% WLWWW 10.30 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% LLLLL 0.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
18% WLWWL 6.95 pts, out
11% WLLWL 4.70 pts, out
9.8% WLWLL 5.15 pts, out
8.0% WWWWL 9.90 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.6% LLWWL 4.60 pts, out
5.9% WLLLL 3.15 pts, out
(37% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
17% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
15% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
13% Gibsonburg (4-1)
9% Hicksville (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.8 (0-4, #407, D6 #38) 2% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 99.4 (0-3, #374, D6 #27) 23% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home, proj. out
W2: 103.6 (0-2, #323, D6 #22) 62% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home, proj. #6
W1: 106.2 (0-1, #282, D6 #13) 74% (need 6-4), 46% home, proj. #5
W0: 114.7 (0-0, #192, D6 #5) 95% (need 6-4), 85% home, proj. #1
Last year 120.8 (12-2)