Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#379 Gibsonburg (4-1) 98.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#32 of 110 in Division VI
#6 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 20-14 H #600 Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18), pick: W by 21 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 38-12 A #645 Elmore Woodmore (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 14 (76%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-16 A #206 Sycamore Mohawk (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 14 (78%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 28-26 H #315 Tiffin Calvert (4-1 D7 R26), pick: L by 20 (86%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 51-0 A #638 Lakeside Danbury (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #557 Kansas Lakota (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Oct 06 (W7) A #569 Sandusky St Mary Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #509 Castalia Margaretta (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #615 Fremont St Joseph Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 22 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #502 Willard (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 7 (66%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#64 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
14.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-5%, 7W-20%, 8W-42%, 9W-33%

Playoff chance
89% now (need 7-3), 57% home
93% with a win in next game, and 67% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 10.35 (8.55-12.30) 9% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 12.45 (10.45-14.55) 68% in, 3% home, proj. #8 (#2-out)
8W: 14.40 (12.95-16.50) 99% in, 55% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
9W: 16.45 (16.00-18.00) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #2 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
33% WWWWW 16.45 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#2, range #1-#7) Northwood 15%

Worst realistic scenario
4.5% WWLWL 12.10 pts, 56% in, 2% home (#8, range #3-out) Hillsdale 25%

Most likely other scenarios
15% WWWWL 14.40 pts, 100% in, 57% home (#4, range #1-#8) Northwood 19%
10% WWLWW 14.05 pts, 98% in, 40% home (#5, range #1-out) Northwood 17%
7.5% WLWWW 14.80 pts, 100% in, 74% home (#4, range #1-#8) Northwood 17%
6.4% LWWWW 14.23 pts, 99% in, 46% home (#5, range #1-out) Northwood 18%
3.1% WLWWL 12.80 pts, 86% in, 6% home (#7, range #2-out) Wynford 17%
3.1% WWWLW 14.80 pts, 99% in, 71% home (#4, range #1-out) Northwood 18%
(17% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24) over Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 8: Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18) over Fostoria (2-3 D5 R18)
Week 6: Edgerton (5-0 D7 R26) over Hicksville (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 10: Fremont St Joseph Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R26) over Castalia Margaretta (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 9: Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17) over Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
15% Northwood (4-1)
13% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
12% Columbus Grove (3-2)
10% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
10% Attica Seneca East (4-1)

Championship probabilities
7.0% Region 22 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.5 (3-1, #384, D6 #33) 91% (need 7-3), 60% home, proj. #2
W3: 90.5 (2-1, #489, D6 #55) 39% (need 7-3), 10% home, proj. #8
W2: 91.7 (2-0, #483, D6 #50) 41% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. #7
W1: 90.4 (1-0, #489, D6 #53) 32% (need 8-2), 9% home, proj. out
W0: 95.4 (0-0, #468, D6 #45) 42% (bubble if 7-3), 16% home, proj. #7
Last year 99.0 (9-2)