Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#408 Hicksville (3-2) 97.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#39 of 110 in Division VI
#10 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-24 A #266 Archbold (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 7 (63%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 34-39 H #285 Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 9 (67%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 42-34 A #548 Edon (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 43-0 A #573 Defiance Ayersville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 51-22 H #631 Holgate (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #283 Edgerton (5-0 D7 R26), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #425 Sherwood Fairview (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #541 Defiance Tinora (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #580 Antwerp (3-2 D7 R26), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #434 Haviland Wayne Trace (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 8 (68%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#41 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
12.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #8 seed in R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-6%, 5W-24%, 6W-38%, 7W-26%, 8W-5%

Playoff chance
57% now (bubble if 6-4), 25% home
88% with a win in next game, and 46% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.95 (8.05-13.15) 6% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.35 (10.00-15.85) 64% in, 5% home, proj. #8 (#1-out)
7W: 14.85 (13.25-17.75) 100% in, 69% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
8W: 18.10 (16.95-18.65) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
5.2% WWWWW 18.10 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) Northwood 13%

Worst realistic scenario
2.2% LLWLL 7.30 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% LWWWW 14.70 pts, 100% in, 59% home (#4, range #1-#8) Northwood 19%
11% LLWWW 11.85 pts, 42% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Wynford 20%
11% LWWWL 12.10 pts, 58% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Hillsdale 20%
9.2% LLWWL 9.25 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
4.4% WLWWW 15.25 pts, 100% in, 77% home (#3, range #1-#8) Northwood 17%
4.0% WWWWL 15.70 pts, 100% in, 85% home (#3, range #1-#7) Northwood 17%
(37% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Doylestown Chippewa (3-2 D5 R17) over Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1 D6 R22)
Week 7: Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24) over Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 7: Orrville (4-1 D5 R17) over Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 10: Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3 D4 R13) over Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 7: Monroeville (2-3 D7 R26) over Ashland Crestview (2-3 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
13% Gibsonburg (4-1)
13% Northwood (4-1)
13% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
12% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)

Championship probabilities
3.0% Region 22 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 99.8 (2-2, #363, D6 #29) 79% (need 6-4), 47% home, proj. #7
W3: 98.0 (1-2, #394, D6 #31) 77% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home, proj. #5
W2: 98.0 (0-2, #390, D6 #28) 51% (need 6-4), 17% home, proj. out
W1: 97.5 (0-1, #398, D6 #30) 43% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home, proj. #8
W0: 103.7 (0-0, #337, D6 #22) 60% (need 7-3), 34% home, proj. #5
Last year 108.9 (9-3)