Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#289 Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1) 105.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#19 of 110 in Division VI
#2 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 61-27 A #416 Ashland Mapleton (4-1 D7 R25), pick: W by 16 (78%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 33-13 H #479 Ashland Crestview (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 10 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 11-21 A #363 Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 23 (89%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 42-28 H #423 West Salem Northwestern (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-14 A #535 Rittman (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #124 Creston Norwayne (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 15 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #360 Doylestown Chippewa (3-2 D5 R17), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #519 Dalton (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #528 Smithville (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #544 Apple Creek Waynedale (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 20 (88%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#30 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
16.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #1 seed in R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-1%, 6W-11%, 7W-37%, 8W-41%, 9W-10%

Playoff chance
95% now (need 6-4), 64% home
100% with a win in next game, and 93% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.88 (8.70-13.10) 25% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.30 (10.05-16.20) 72% in, 7% home, proj. #7 (#1-out)
7W: 13.90 (11.35-18.70) 97% in, 38% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
8W: 16.15 (14.05-20.40) 100% in, 96% home, proj. #2 (#1-#7)
9W: 19.75 (18.35-21.10) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
9.7% WWWWW 19.75 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) Northwood 11%

Worst realistic scenario
2.8% LLLWW 11.95 pts, 59% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) Columbus Grove 21%

Most likely other scenarios
31% LWWWW 15.95 pts, 100% in, 95% home (#3, range #1-#7) Northwood 14%
21% LLWWW 13.35 pts, 95% in, 16% home (#6, range #1-out) Gibsonburg 17%
6.7% WLWWW 17.20 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Northwood 13%
5.4% LWWLW 14.55 pts, 99% in, 62% home (#4, range #1-out) Northwood 20%
4.3% LWLWW 14.35 pts, 99% in, 47% home (#5, range #1-out) Northwood 17%
3.7% LLWLW 12.05 pts, 66% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Gibsonburg 20%
(16% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Ashland Crestview (2-3 D6 R22) over Monroeville (2-3 D7 R26)
Week 6: Ashland Mapleton (4-1 D7 R25) over Greenwich South Central (5-0 D7 R26)
Week 7: Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24) over Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 9: Sycamore Mohawk (5-0 D7 R26) over Bucyrus Wynford (4-1 D6 R22)
Week 9: Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17) over Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% Northwood (4-1)
12% Gibsonburg (4-1)
12% Columbus Grove (3-2)
10% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
9% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)

Championship probabilities
21% Region 22 champ
0.6% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 104.1 (3-1, #313, D6 #21) 93% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home, proj. #3
W3: 98.8 (2-1, #385, D6 #29) 74% (need 6-4), 37% home, proj. #6
W2: 108.6 (2-0, #241, D6 #12) 95% (bubble if 6-4), 73% home, proj. #3
W1: 105.4 (1-0, #292, D6 #16) 81% (need 7-3), 50% home, proj. #2
W0: 105.7 (0-0, #303, D6 #15) 65% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home, proj. #2
Last year 109.0 (9-4)