Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#168 Liberty Center (5-0) 115.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#7 of 106 in Division V
#4 of 27 in Region 18
Eitel team page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-3 H #541 Defiance Tinora (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 21-0 H #300 Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 19 (83%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 44-13 A #542 Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 24 (90%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 37-7 H #429 Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 24 (90%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 51-7 A #500 Delta (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #443 Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #266 Archbold (4-1 D5 R18), pick: W by 2 (56%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #483 Swanton (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 22 (91%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #310 Bryan (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 7 (67%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #327 Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 19 (87%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#71 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 9-1
20.82 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #2 seed in R18 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-1%, 7W-5%, 8W-20%, 9W-43%, 10W-31%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 85% home
99% with a win in next game, and 97% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 15.37 (11.68-19.21) 84% in, 9% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 17.99 (14.21-23.70) 99% in, 56% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
9W: 20.82 (17.23-24.81) 100% in, 97% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)
10W: 23.74 (21.22-27.13) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
31% WWWWW 23.74 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) Anna 18%

Worst realistic scenario
4.6% WLWLW 16.83 pts, 99% in, 22% home (#5, range #2-out) Miami East 28%

Most likely other scenarios
12% WLWWW 20.21 pts, 100% in, 91% home (#3, range #1-#6) Miami East 25%
12% WWWLW 20.41 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Archbold 15%
12% WWWWL 21.37 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Lake 17%
4.6% LWWWW 22.08 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Anna 16%
4.3% WWWLL 17.94 pts, 100% in, 65% home (#4, range #1-#8) Miami East 23%
4.0% WLWWL 17.84 pts, 100% in, 44% home (#5, range #1-#8) Miami East 29%
(15% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14) over Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6)
Week 8: Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10) over Toledo Rogers (0-5 D3 R10)
Week 10: Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14) over Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10)
Week 6: Bryan (4-1 D4 R14) over Archbold (4-1 D5 R18)
Week 9: Bellville Clear Fork (5-0 D4 R14) over Marion Pleasant (5-0 D5 R18)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% Casstown Miami East (4-1)
13% Archbold (4-1)
12% Anna (3-2)
12% Richwood North Union (4-1)
11% Millbury Lake (3-2)

Championship probabilities
16% Region 18 champ
3.8% Division 5 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 113.8 (4-0, #183, D5 #9) 92% (bubble if 7-3), 62% home, proj. #3
W3: 112.7 (3-0, #190, D5 #11) 89% (bubble if 7-3), 50% home, proj. #2
W2: 110.8 (2-0, #210, D5 #14) 67% (need 8-2), 26% home, proj. #7
W1: 110.6 (1-0, #218, D5 #13) 71% (bubble if 7-3), 35% home, proj. #2
W0: 107.7 (0-0, #276, D5 #18) 49% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home, proj. #8
Last year 110.5 (7-3)