Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#149 Lima Central Catholic (5-0) 117.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#7 of 110 in Division VI
#4 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-19 A #247 Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 20-10 H #404 Delphos St John's (1-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 08 (W3) W 43-20 H #458 Ada (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 24 (89%)
Sep 15 (W4) W 67-20 H #282 Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 36-6 A #583 Toledo Rogers (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Sep 28 (W6) A Woodlan IN, [W by 22, 91%]
Oct 05 (W7) A #487 Columbus East (2-3 D4 R15), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #467 Troy Christian (4-1 D6 R24), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Oct 27 (W10) H #419 Lucas (3-2 D7 R27), pick: W by 20 (88%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#24 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 90
Projected record 9-0
27.56 Harbin points (divisor 90)
Projected #1 seed in R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-4%, 8W-26%, 9W-70%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 7-2), 99% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 21.06 (17.39-25.06) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #4 (#1-#5)
8W: 24.39 (20.11-28.56) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)
9W: 27.56 (22.39-32.11) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
70% WWWW 27.56 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) Perry 19%

Worst realistic scenario
4.8% WWLW 23.44 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#5) Troy Christian 26%

Most likely other scenarios
8.5% LWWW 24.28 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Perry 22%
7.2% WWWL 24.64 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Perry 21%
5.3% WLWW 24.83 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Perry 22%
(4% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Maria Stein Marion Local (5-0 D6 R24) over Coldwater (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 8: Toledo Rogers (0-5 D3 R10) over Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10)
Week 9: St Henry (4-1 D6 R24) over Coldwater (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 8: Anna (3-2 D5 R18) over Coldwater (5-0 D6 R24)
Week 10: Ada (2-3 D6 R22) over Harrod Allen East (2-3 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
20% Lima Perry (4-1)
14% Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0)
11% Spencerville (4-1)
10% St Henry (4-1)
9% West Liberty-Salem (4-1)

Championship probabilities
5.9% Region 24 champ
2.3% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 119.2 (4-0, #134, D6 #6) in and 99% home, proj. #1
W3: 116.0 (3-0, #160, D6 #9) 99% (need 6-3), 97% home, proj. #2
W2: 115.6 (2-0, #162, D6 #7) 99% (need 6-3), 92% home, proj. #2
W1: 113.7 (1-0, #173, D6 #6) 98% (bubble if 5-4), 90% home, proj. #1
W0: 110.4 (0-0, #247, D6 #9) 93% (bubble if 5-4), 74% home, proj. #2
Last year 116.3 (10-2)