Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#363 Loudonville (3-2) 100.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#29 of 110 in Division VI
#5 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 26-29 A #479 Ashland Crestview (2-3 D6 R22), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-28 A #360 Doylestown Chippewa (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-11 H #289 Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 23 (89%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 47-7 H #442 Wooster Triway (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 28-7 A #468 Navarre Fairless (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #401 Massillon Tuslaw (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #223 Orrville (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #172 Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #197 Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #353 Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 1 (51%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Biggest upsets
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#20 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
12.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-9%, 4W-31%, 5W-37%, 6W-18%, 7W-4%

Playoff chance
51% now (need 5-5), 23% home
62% with a win in next game, and 36% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.90 (7.70-13.75) 5% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 12.70 (10.30-16.50) 72% in, 8% home, proj. #7 (#1-out)
6W: 15.85 (13.50-19.35) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #3 (#1-#8)
7W: 19.20 (17.75-21.50) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
4.5% WWLLW 15.50 pts, 100% in, 84% home (#3, range #1-#7) Northwood 14%

Worst realistic scenario
9.0% LLLLL 7.50 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WLLLW 12.00 pts, 46% in, 1% home (out, range #3-out) Hillsdale 23%
13% WLLLL 9.35 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
10% LLLLW 9.90 pts, 2% in (out, range #6-out)
4.9% WLLWW 15.30 pts, 100% in, 83% home (#3, range #1-#8) Northwood 17%
4.7% WLLWL 12.92 pts, 81% in, 3% home (#7, range #2-out) Seneca East 17%
4.5% WWLLL 13.10 pts, 84% in, 8% home (#7, range #3-out) Gibsonburg 18%
(35% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24) over Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 9: Edgerton (5-0 D7 R26) over Haviland Wayne Trace (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 9: Sycamore Mohawk (5-0 D7 R26) over Bucyrus Wynford (4-1 D6 R22)
Week 6: Indianapolis Bishop Chatard IN (6-0 D4) over Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 9: Peninsula Woodridge (1-4 D4 R13) over Norton (4-1 D3 R9)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
13% Gibsonburg (4-1)
12% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
12% Columbus Grove (3-2)
11% Northwood (4-1)

Championship probabilities
4.8% Region 22 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 97.2 (2-2, #403, D6 #36) 38% (need 5-5), 14% home, proj. out
W3: 90.9 (1-2, #483, D6 #51) 17% (bubble if 4-6), 5% home, proj. out
W2: 83.6 (0-2, #560, D6 #75) 1% , proj. out
W1: 88.6 (0-1, #510, D6 #61) 4% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 92.4 (0-0, #503, D6 #54) 12% (need 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 85.2 (0-10)