Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#435 North Robinson Colonel Crawford (3-2) 95.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#47 of 110 in Division VI
#14 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 49-0 A #689 Mount Gilead (0-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 20 (83%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 20-55 H #202 Richwood North Union (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 28-12 A #667 Cardington-Lincoln (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 20 (86%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 49-6 H #518 Upper Sandusky (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-14 A #323 Bucyrus Wynford (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #206 Sycamore Mohawk (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #699 New Washington Buckeye Central (0-5 D7 R26), pick: W by 33 (97%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #616 Bucyrus (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #293 Attica Seneca East (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 12 (77%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #383 Carey (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 3 (56%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#58 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
8.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-6%, 5W-35%, 6W-41%, 7W-15%, 8W-2%

Playoff chance
7% now (need 8-2), 2% home
28% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 8.35 (7.20-12.20) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 11.55 (10.50-15.35) 31% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 14.95 (14.10-16.20) 100% in, 79% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WWWWW 14.95 pts, 100% in, 79% home (#3, range #1-#7) Northwood 15%

Worst realistic scenario
5.3% LWLLL 4.05 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
27% LWWLL 5.20 pts, out
23% LWWLW 8.00 pts, out
9.4% LWWWL 8.50 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
7.9% LWWWW 11.30 pts, 23% in (out, range #5-out) Hillsdale 23%
6.2% WWWLL 9.10 pts, out
5.2% WWWLW 11.65 pts, 30% in (out, range #5-out) Seneca East 29%
(14% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Montclair NJ (2-2 D1) over
Week 8: St Joan of Arc ON (1-1 D2) over
Week 6: over Tolsia WV (3-2 D6)
Week 10: Sugar Grove Berne Union (4-1 D7 R27) over Worthington Christian (2-3 D6 R23)
Week 9: Iroquois PA (0-4 D6) over

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
16% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
15% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
15% Gibsonburg (4-1)
13% Columbus Grove (3-2)
11% Attica Seneca East (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 95.6 (3-1, #427, D6 #42) 19% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
W3: 90.8 (2-1, #486, D6 #53) 9% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 92.3 (1-1, #473, D6 #47) 9% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 95.3 (1-0, #436, D6 #38) 24% (bubble if 7-3), 8% home, proj. out
W0: 96.6 (0-0, #452, D6 #41) 33% (bubble if 7-3), 13% home, proj. out
Last year 93.7 (5-5)