Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#576 Oberlin (2-3) 81.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#77 of 110 in Division VI
#19 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-56 H #491 Vermilion (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 8-42 H #523 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 30-24 A #591 Garfield Heights Trinity (2-3 D6 R21), pick: L by 13 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 46-21 H #622 Sheffield Brookside (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 20-66 A #378 Sullivan Black River (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #370 Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #391 Fairview Park Fairview (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #445 Rocky River Lutheran West (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #662 Brooklyn (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #253 Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 26 (93%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#73 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
5.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-11%, 3W-48%, 4W-32%, 5W-8%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.6% WLWWL 11.65 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
12% LLLLL 3.45 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
40% LLLWL 4.90 pts, out
14% LLWWL 8.10 pts, out
7.4% WLLWL 8.45 pts, out
6.5% LWLWL 6.85 pts, out
3.8% LLWLL 6.65 pts, out
2.3% WLLLL 6.95 pts, out
(13% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 83.1 (2-2, #558, D6 #71) 1% , proj. out
W3: 83.1 (1-2, #564, D6 #74) 1% , proj. out
W2: 76.7 (0-2, #618, D6 #83) 1% , proj. out
W1: 82.0 (0-1, #577, D6 #75) 2% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 86.5 (0-0, #560, D6 #72) 7% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 92.5 (5-5)