Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#425 Sherwood Fairview (3-2) 96.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#42 of 110 in Division VI
#11 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-30 A #443 Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 19 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 46-6 H #579 Paulding (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 22 (86%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 20-21 A #310 Bryan (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-20 A #580 Antwerp (3-2 D7 R26), pick: W by 14 (78%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 29-62 H #283 Edgerton (5-0 D7 R26), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #434 Haviland Wayne Trace (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 6 (65%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #408 Hicksville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #573 Defiance Ayersville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #541 Defiance Tinora (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #631 Holgate (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 25 (93%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#35 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
10.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-2%, 5W-14%, 6W-36%, 7W-35%, 8W-13%

Playoff chance
38% now (bubble if 7-3), 8% home
57% with a win in next game, and 14% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.55 (6.55-11.00) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.35 (8.00-13.55) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 12.30 (10.20-15.45) 61% in, 3% home, proj. #8 (#2-out)
8W: 14.55 (12.90-16.80) 99% in, 54% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)

Best realistic scenario
13% WWWWW 14.55 pts, 99% in, 54% home (#4, range #1-out) Northwood 16%

Worst realistic scenario
2.7% LLLWW 8.10 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% WLWWW 12.08 pts, 53% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) Hillsdale 20%
14% LLWWW 9.65 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
11% LWWWW 12.15 pts, 52% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) Hillsdale 20%
6.6% WLWLW 10.85 pts, 12% in (out, range #6-out) Hillsdale 18%
5.5% LLWLW 8.50 pts, out
4.8% WWWLW 13.10 pts, 90% in, 10% home (#7, range #2-out) Hillsdale 18%
(26% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14) over Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 7: Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14) over Swanton (2-3 D5 R18)
Week 6: Paulding (1-4 D5 R18) over Delphos Jefferson (1-4 D6 R24)
Week 10: Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14) over Delta (2-3 D6 R22)
Week 9: Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14) over Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
17% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
14% Gibsonburg (4-1)
13% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
13% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
13% Columbus Grove (3-2)

Championship probabilities
1.7% Region 22 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.3 (3-1, #386, D6 #34) 75% (need 7-3), 40% home, proj. #6
W3: 96.6 (2-1, #408, D6 #34) 74% (bubble if 6-4), 41% home, proj. #4
W2: 104.4 (2-0, #309, D6 #21) 96% (need 6-4), 80% home, proj. #2
W1: 101.7 (1-0, #341, D6 #25) 77% (need 7-3), 45% home, proj. #3
W0: 94.3 (0-0, #484, D6 #47) 15% (need 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
Last year 98.3 (6-4)