Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#669 Toledo Ottawa Hills (1-4) 68.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#101 of 110 in Division VI
#26 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-61 H #460 Lima Perry (4-1 D6 R24), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-44 A #573 Defiance Ayersville (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-54 H #429 Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 13 (75%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 44-13 A #714 Stryker (0-5 D7 R26), pick: W by 21 (87%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-20 A #618 West Unity Hilltop (3-2 D7 R26), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #548 Edon (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #647 Oregon Cardinal Stritch Catholic (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #673 Montpelier (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #406 Northwood (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #693 Toledo Christian (1-4 D7 R26), pick: W by 11 (74%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#86 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
3.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-6%, 2W-29%, 3W-39%, 4W-21%, 5W-4%

Best realistic scenario
2.7% WWWLW 6.90 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
6.5% LLLLL 0.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% LLLLW 1.75 pts, out
14% LLWLW 2.60 pts, out
12% LWLLW 3.30 pts, out
11% LWWLW 4.40 pts, out
7.0% LLWLL 1.50 pts, out
5.2% LWLLL 2.20 pts, out
(26% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 73.7 (1-3, #638, D6 #92) 1% , proj. out
W3: 74.0 (0-3, #637, D6 #93) 1% , proj. out
W2: 74.9 (0-2, #633, D6 #91) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 77.4 (0-1, #621, D6 #90) 3% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 85.3 (0-0, #570, D6 #74) 25% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home, proj. out
Last year 87.6 (7-3)