Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#396 Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0) 97.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#35 of 110 in Division VI
#6 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 46-0 A #628 Columbus Africentric Early College (0-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 57-7 H #584 Williamsburg (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 12 (73%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-0 A #517 Wellston (2-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-8 H #649 Piketon (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 22 (89%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 58-24 A #594 Chillicothe Huntington (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 16 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #321 Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #449 Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #497 Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #534 Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #485 Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23), pick: W by 9 (70%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks
Most improved teams
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#98 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 8-2
17.49 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #4 seed in R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-6%, 7W-21%, 8W-36%, 9W-28%, 10W-8%

Playoff chance
96% now (bubble if 6-4), 71% home
99% with a win in next game, and 94% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 11.29 (8.11-14.42) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
7W: 14.36 (11.03-19.11) 99% in, 22% home, proj. #6 (#1-out)
8W: 17.49 (14.01-21.28) 100% in, 85% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)
9W: 20.72 (17.74-24.15) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)
10W: 24.20 (21.82-26.87) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#2)

Best realistic scenario
8.3% WWWWW 24.20 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Adena 12%

Worst realistic scenario
2.9% LWLWL 14.36 pts, 98% in, 13% home (#6, range #2-out) Fort Frye 20%

Most likely other scenarios
13% LWWWW 20.16 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Adena 15%
7.3% LLWWW 16.94 pts, 100% in, 83% home (#3, range #1-#6) Shadyside 17%
6.5% LWLWW 17.29 pts, 100% in, 81% home (#3, range #1-#6) Southeastern 19%
5.7% LWWWL 17.34 pts, 100% in, 77% home (#4, range #1-#7) Adena 22%
4.9% WLWWW 20.92 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#1, range #1-#5) Adena 16%
4.5% LWWLW 17.39 pts, 100% in, 91% home (#3, range #1-#7) Adena 18%
(47% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19) over Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 10: Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14) over Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 6: Whitehall-Yearling (4-1 D2 R7) over Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 9: Williamsburg (1-4 D6 R24) over Bethel-Tate (1-4 D5 R20)
Week 10: Wellston (2-3 D5 R19) over McArthur Vinton County (1-4 D4 R15)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
13% Frankfort Adena (3-1)
12% Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1)
12% Shadyside (4-1)
11% Galion Northmor (5-0)
9% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)

Championship probabilities
5.9% Region 23 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.0 (4-0, #422, D6 #41) 90% (bubble if 6-4), 60% home, proj. #3
W3: 95.4 (3-0, #427, D6 #36) 87% (bubble if 6-4), 60% home, proj. #2
W2: 87.9 (2-0, #520, D6 #61) 43% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home, proj. #6
W1: 85.8 (1-0, #547, D6 #70) 28% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home, proj. out
W0: 84.1 (0-0, #588, D6 #79) 17% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 78.0 (3-7)