Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#553 Barnesville (2-3) 83.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#71 of 110 in Division VI
#19 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 36-6 H #685 Newcomerstown (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 12 (71%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-26 H #307 Byesville Meadowbrook (2-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 22 (87%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 16-14 H #506 Lore City Buckeye Trail (3-2 D6 R23), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-12 A #520 Sarahsville Shenandoah (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 13-14 A #489 Warsaw River View (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #364 Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #331 Beverly Fort Frye (4-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #648 Woodsfield Monroe Central (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #563 Caldwell (3-2 D7 R27), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #522 Belmont Union Local (3-2 D5 R19), pick: L by 1 (51%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#62 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 4-6
6.75 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-5%, 3W-27%, 4W-39%, 5W-23%, 6W-5%

Playoff chance
4% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
17% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 6.75 (4.53-10.84) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 9.12 (6.34-13.26) 4% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.79 (9.37-15.83) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.9% WLWWW 11.64 pts, 46% in (out, range #5-out) Fort Frye 30%

Worst realistic scenario
5.5% LLLLL 3.12 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% LLWLL 4.28 pts, out
14% LLWWL 6.45 pts, out
12% LLWLW 6.35 pts, out
11% LLWWW 8.62 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
5.3% LLLWL 5.59 pts, out
5.2% LLLLW 5.39 pts, out
(30% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Caldwell (3-2 D7 R27) over Sarahsville Shenandoah (2-3 D6 R23)
Week 10: Sugar Grove Berne Union (4-1 D7 R27) over Worthington Christian (2-3 D6 R23)
Week 9: Cleves Taylor (1-4 D4 R16) over Reading (1-4 D5 R20)
Week 7: Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23) over Howard East Knox (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 9: Woodsfield Monroe Central (0-5 D7 R27) over New Matamoras Frontier (1-4 D7 R27)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
25% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
22% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
19% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
15% Galion Northmor (5-0)
11% Shadyside (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.2 (2-2, #540, D6 #68) 12% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 90.3 (2-1, #492, D6 #57) 42% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home, proj. #8
W2: 86.3 (1-1, #536, D6 #66) 15% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 85.9 (1-0, #546, D6 #69) 15% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 84.7 (0-0, #580, D6 #76) 8% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 82.0 (3-7)