Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#331 Beverly Fort Frye (4-0) 102.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#26 of 110 in Division VI
#4 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-14 A #545 Belpre (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 23 (87%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 37-6 A #582 Johnstown Northridge (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 20 (85%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 22-20 H #488 Waterford (4-1 D7 R27), pick: W by 16 (81%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 53-0 H #648 Woodsfield Monroe Central (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #661 New Matamoras Frontier (1-4 D7 R27), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #553 Barnesville (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #563 Caldwell (3-2 D7 R27), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #520 Sarahsville Shenandoah (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 27 (W10) A #364 Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21), pick: W by 5 (62%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#89 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 90
Projected record 8-1
18.06 Harbin points (divisor 90)
Projected #1 seed in R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-3%, 7W-17%, 8W-46%, 9W-34%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 6-3), 86% home
99% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 13.06 (10.78-16.22) 93% in, 11% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
7W: 15.50 (12.94-18.94) 100% in, 53% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
8W: 18.06 (15.22-22.06) 100% in, 93% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)
9W: 21.22 (18.28-24.22) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #1 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
34% WWWWW 21.22 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#1, range #1-#5) Adena 13%

Worst realistic scenario
5.0% WWLWL 15.11 pts, 100% in, 43% home (#5, range #1-#8) Northmor 23%

Most likely other scenarios
30% WWWWL 17.67 pts, 100% in, 91% home (#3, range #1-#7) Shadyside 14%
6.3% WWWLW 18.83 pts, 100% in, 97% home (#2, range #1-#6) Southeastern 15%
5.2% WWLWW 18.61 pts, 100% in, 97% home (#2, range #1-#5) Adena 17%
5.2% WWWLL 15.33 pts, 100% in, 48% home (#5, range #2-#8) Northmor 19%
4.4% WLWWW 19.11 pts, 100% in, 97% home (#2, range #1-#6) East Knox 13%
3.7% WLWWL 15.56 pts, 100% in, 54% home (#4, range #1-#7) Shadyside 19%
(7% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19) over Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 7: London (5-0 D4 R16) over Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 6: Whitehall-Yearling (4-1 D2 R7) over Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 10: Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14) over Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 6: Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15) over Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
13% Frankfort Adena (3-1)
12% Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1)
12% Shadyside (4-1)
10% Galion Northmor (5-0)
8% Howard East Knox (5-0)

Championship probabilities
14% Region 23 champ
0.3% Division 6 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 101.9 (3-0, #344, D6 #23) 99% (need 6-3), 84% home, proj. #2
W3: 101.9 (3-0, #338, D6 #24) 99% (need 6-3), 89% home, proj. #1
W2: 102.8 (2-0, #331, D6 #23) 98% (bubble if 6-4), 86% home, proj. #1
W1: 102.1 (1-0, #332, D6 #22) 95% (bubble if 6-4), 76% home, proj. #1
W0: 103.9 (0-0, #331, D6 #19) 92% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home, proj. #3
Last year 109.1 (10-2)