Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#481 Centerburg (3-2) 90.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#57 of 110 in Division VI
#11 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 28-14 A #537 Utica (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-42 A #419 Lucas (3-2 D7 R27), pick: L by 12 (72%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 27-0 H #582 Johnstown Northridge (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 10 (71%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 35-7 H #667 Cardington-Lincoln (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 24 (90%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-36 A #237 Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 18 (84%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #414 Howard East Knox (5-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #689 Mount Gilead (0-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #507 Danville (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #299 Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 11 (75%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #574 Fredericktown (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 14 (79%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#56 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
8.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-7%, 5W-29%, 6W-40%, 7W-20%, 8W-3%

Playoff chance
11% now (bubble if 7-3), 1% home
25% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 5.95 (4.55-10.90) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 8.45 (6.05-13.45) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 10.60 (9.25-14.55) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 13.95 (12.85-15.35) 99% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
3.5% WWWWW 13.95 pts, 99% in, 7% home (#6, range #3-out) Fort Frye 23%

Worst realistic scenario
5.3% LWLLL 4.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
17% LWWLW 7.10 pts, out
15% LWLLW 5.60 pts, out
11% WWWLW 10.40 pts, 19% in (out, range #6-out) Fort Frye 27%
10% WWLLW 8.95 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
6.0% LWWLL 5.90 pts, out
4.9% LWLWW 9.20 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
(27% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15) over Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23)
Week 10: Waterford (4-1 D7 R27) over Belpre (3-2 D6 R23)
Week 6: Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15) over Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 10: East Canton (3-2 D7 R25) over Lore City Buckeye Trail (3-2 D6 R23)
Week 10: Belmont Union Local (3-2 D5 R19) over Barnesville (2-3 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
25% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
22% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
18% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
14% Shadyside (4-1)
12% Galion Northmor (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 92.6 (3-1, #466, D6 #51) 19% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W3: 91.8 (2-1, #473, D6 #48) 11% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 88.0 (1-1, #516, D6 #60) 8% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 91.9 (1-0, #475, D6 #46) 27% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home, proj. out
W0: 88.9 (0-0, #535, D6 #67) 11% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 82.1 (2-8)