Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#594 Chillicothe Huntington (3-2) 79.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#84 of 110 in Division VI
#21 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-0 A #680 Reedsville Eastern (1-4 D7 R27), pick: W by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 41-0 A #671 Portsmouth Sciotoville Community (1-4 D7 R27), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 30-7 H #696 McDermott Northwest (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 16 (81%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 30-46 H #497 Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 24-58 H #396 Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 16 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #534 Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #485 Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23), pick: L by 8 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #649 Piketon (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #321 Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #449 Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 21 (89%)

Lists on which the team appears
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#99 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 4-6
5.69 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-14%, 4W-40%, 5W-33%, 6W-11%

Playoff chance
6% now (need 7-3), 1% home
14% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.06 (5.64-12.66) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.73 (8.21-15.33) 31% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 13.83 (12.09-17.34) 96% in, 8% home, proj. #6 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WLWLW 10.68 pts, 26% in (out, range #6-out) Fort Frye 24%

Worst realistic scenario
14% LLLLL 4.18 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% LLWLL 4.98 pts, out
11% WLWLL 7.61 pts, out
9.1% LWWLL 7.76 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
7.0% WLLLL 6.95 pts, out
5.6% LWLLL 7.11 pts, out
5.1% LLWLW 8.01 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
(23% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15) over Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 6: Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15) over Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 9: Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23) over Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23)
Week 7: New Middletown Springfield (4-1 D6 R21) over Berlin Center Western Reserve (5-0 D6 R21)
Week 10: Sugar Grove Berne Union (4-1 D7 R27) over Worthington Christian (2-3 D6 R23)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
23% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
22% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
20% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
16% Galion Northmor (5-0)
12% Shadyside (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 78.8 (3-1, #601, D6 #85) 7% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 85.1 (3-0, #547, D6 #70) 45% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home, proj. out
W2: 83.4 (2-0, #561, D6 #76) 40% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home, proj. out
W1: 78.0 (1-0, #614, D6 #86) 12% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 75.8 (0-0, #649, D6 #96) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 75.3 (2-8)